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If you're in the mood for a spit-take with your morning coffee, this link should do it. WalletPop.com has posted what it apparently thinks is a legitimate study of the "25 Most Dangerous Neighborhoods" in the country, and coming in at #9 is.... Near Southeast???? Near Southeast, which hasn't had a murder since 20052004, and has had a grand total of seven assaults with a deadly weapon this year? And yet somehow this "exclusive data developed by Dr. Andrew Schiller's team at NeighborhoodScout.com" is predicting that there will be 240 violent crimes in the neighborhood each year. As reader A put it when passing the link along, "I think I could name at least 9 neighborhoods in DC more dangerous."
Perhaps when pulling together this clearly rigorous study they wandered by my map of the murders in Near Southeast between 1987 and 2004 and forgot to read the dates on the data. More likely is a glitch with their algorithm comparing crime reports with the size of the population (which has been pretty small in Near Southeast over the past few years). Or a mixup with addresses. But otherwise, my goodness....!
UPDATE: Further ruminations on this travesty of a mockery of a sham of a mockery of a travesty of two mockeries of a sham [ahem] from DCist and NBC4. And DC Urban Turf finds that this list has gotten into trouble in the past.
UPDATE II: Here's ABC7's video report on the story, which includes an extremely rare on-camera appearance by yours truly. As should be clear by now, if there's anything that gets me riled up, it's factual inaccuracies.
UPDATE III: And NBC4's 11 pm report. If indeed the study included number of stolen cars to consider a neighborhood "dangerous," then yes, I can see how Near SE's numbers would skew high, especially if they used 2008 crime data. (A lot of cars got stolen during the 2006-2008 era, when construction workers came to the area to build the stadium and other buildings, and there were few people on the streets during the day to act as "eyes and ears.") But still, does that make a neighborhood *dangerous*? Yeesh.
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JD but not that JD says: (10/4/10 11:46 AM)
Has to be based on old data or something. I used to live in Orlando, and that area around Paramore Ave is also an area under renewal...used to be bad...and it's no Bay Hill Country Club but I'm not sure that it is that dangerous anymore. Weird.


Rob says: (10/4/10 11:56 AM)
The methodologies used to calculate these lists are almost always flawed. But it doesn't really matter to the authors, because local media in all of these cities will report this "study" at face-value and draw undeserved attention to the website.


Mark says: (10/4/10 12:12 PM)
If you follow through the math on the page describing the crime in the neighborhood (link they're using a neighborhood population of 2155. How many years ago was that true?


Mark says: (10/4/10 12:13 PM)
Sorry, here's the correct link:
link


JD says: (10/4/10 12:13 PM)
Not that long ago, probably early 2009. It's about 3,500 now.


Bruce says: (10/4/10 1:18 PM)
Sadly, ALL of the bad press, etc that is dome regarding Near Southeast (I now JD likes this) Capitol Riverfront is done by folks who have apparently NEVER stepped foot in the area.
Sad considering that this is now such a safe area. Its livable/walkable to quote Tommy Wells...

Bruce


John says: (10/4/10 1:37 PM)
They definetly took numbers from back in 2005 or probably even before when all the housing projects were still up. Look at the lifestyle sections says 97% of the neighborhood is black and only 8% are govt. employees. Have these ppl ever heard of Trinidad, Anacostia, Berry Farms, Langston terrace, SW Cappers, Mount pleasant, just to name a few hoods with prob. 75% more crime....really makes u wonder how they messed up this badly....


JD says: (10/4/10 1:41 PM)
I tried to get through to look at their methodology, but their site is down even more often than JDLand is. :-)


SW says: (10/4/10 1:54 PM)
That list is garbage. How the hell can Detroit not even have one single 'hood qualify for that list.


Mauricio says: (10/4/10 2:10 PM)
All you have to do is look at the comments section of that article to realize that most of the folks reading it are fairly insane and not anyone you'd want living in DC anyway.


Meredith says: (10/4/10 3:15 PM)
News 4 is apparently running a story on it tonight--they interviewed me outside of the EYA model homes this afternoon. Caught me off-guard but I am glad I was able to say that I don't believe police reports would support this crazy assertion about L St and the neighborhood. Gave jdland a mention too as a site we often check for neighborhood info--thanks JD for keeping us all informed!


MJM says: (10/4/10 3:52 PM)
Maybe that site/study could have used this study (linked below) that started to show the changes in 2007. But hey 'hood scout got props from Money Magazine and they are used by Harvard, UC-Berkeley, U Penn, MIT and others researching real estate so it must be true. good grief.....

link

Near -Southeast is Cluster 27


MJM says: (10/4/10 4:07 PM)
Hood Scout Report Info
link


pkp says: (10/4/10 5:18 PM)
The opening sentence of a site disclaimer at the bottom of the crime tab:

"Although we work hard to provide premium quality information, the content contained in any NeighborhoodScout Report is a work of art."


JD says: (10/4/10 5:28 PM)
Thanks for the plug, Meredith!


BW says: (10/4/10 10:30 PM)
If recent trends continue, Near Southeast's population will top Detroit's in ...


CB says: (10/4/10 10:36 PM)
News crew at corner of 4th & L. No markings on side of truck, but suppose we are going to be on the news again this evening.


Will says: (10/5/10 1:00 PM)
On balance, I think this could be a positive thing for the hood. It's usually just folks who live in the area defending it, now we have local news and blogs speaking up. Many thanks to JDLand for correcting the record.


Meredith says: (10/5/10 10:19 PM)
To compare crime just on the Hill, take PSA 105 (Navy Yard S of 395, E of S. Cap) and PSA 102 (2nd-13th NE and D St to FL Ave NE). Per crimemap.dc.gov, reports for the last year (Oct 09-Oct 10) are as follows:
Violent Crime Incidents: PSA105 = 31 PSA102 = 170 Property Crime Incidents: PSA105 = 196 PSA102 = 752.
Even adjusting for number of residents, PSA105 comes out looking better/comparable to other parts of the Hill, certainly not astronomically more dangerous. And 31 violent crimes per 3000+ residents (not including the tens of thousands we absorb every workday and game day) means a person in PSA 105 has a 1 in 100 chance of being a victim, which is a far cry from the 1 in 9 claimed.

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900 B/O POTOMAC AVE SE   THEFT F/AUTO
 08/17/15
500 B/O L ST SE   THEFT F/AUTO
 08/17/15
UNIT B/O K ST SE   THEFT F/AUTO
 08/16/15
500 B/O L ST SE   THEFT
 08/08/15
UNIT B/O I ST SE   BURGLARY
 08/07/15
300 B/O WATER ST SE   THEFT
 08/05/15
UNIT B/O I ST SE   THEFT
 08/04/15
50 B/O M ST SE   THEFT
 08/04/15

Recent Issued Building Permits Archive  
1265 1ST ST SE   
08/26/15 
CAPITAL RIVERFRONT HOTEL LLC /
P1508561 / SUPPLEMENTAL
1277 1ST ST SE   
08/21/15 
BALLPARK RESIDENTIAL LLC BALLPARK RESIDENTIAL LLC / CLINT HOLMES; BALLPARK RESIDE BALLPARK RESIDENTIAL LLC; MITCH PERMUY
E20139177 / SUPPLEMENTAL
1331 2ND ST SE   
09/01/15 
DC WATER DC WATER / CORMAN CONSTUCTION
AH1500716 / CONSTRUCTION
TUNNEL BORING MACHINE / EQUIPMENT
1000 5TH ST SE   
08/18/15 
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA / JOSEPH M MAGNOLIA
P1508371 / SUPPLEMENTAL
909 HALF ST SE   
08/18/15 
BAKER DC
AH1500686 / CONSTRUCTION
AN AFTER HOURS PERMIT IS RESPECTFULLY REQUESTED FROM 12:01AM WEDNESDAY THRU 11:59PM THURSDAY. 1-49 BLOCK OF K ST SE
   
08/21/15 
BAKER DC / CHRISTINE LONG
AH1500695 / CONSTRUCTION
AN AFTER HOURS PERMIT IS FROM 12:01AM THRU 11:59PM FROM 08 / 25 / 2015 TO 08 / 29 / 2015
1015 HALF ST SE   
08/17/15 
HALF ST SE LLC / ANTHONY G SAMBURG
E1508502 / SUPPLEMENTAL
   
08/20/15 
WSP PARSONS BRINCKERHOFF / STEVE AUD; WSP PARSONS BRINCKERHOFF; STEVE AUD
E95740122 / SUPPLEMENTAL
   
08/27/15 
HALF ST SE LLC /
P1508598 / SUPPLEMENTAL
601 L ST SE   
08/17/15 
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA HOUSING AUTHORITY / KRISSY GER LISA LJ PERMIT
B1510955 / CONSTRUCTION
REVISION TO B1101058 MINOR GRADING REVISION
   
08/20/15 
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA HOUSING AUTHORITY / MARK A DORSEY
EN1502944 / SHOP DRAWING
TYPE OF ELEVATOR ONE (1) HYDRO / STEEL / CENTRALLY / PASSENGER TO PROVIDE ACCESS BETWEEN G AND G2 FLOORS AS PER PLANS.
   
08/20/15 
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA HOUSING AUTHORITY / MARK A DORSEY
EN1502945 / SHOP DRAWING
TYPE OF ELEVATOR: TWO (2) TRACTION / STEEL / CENTRALLY / PASSENGER (5TH FLOOR).
   
08/20/15 
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA HOUSING AUTHORITY / MARK A DORSEY
EN1502970 / SHOP DRAWING
TYPE OF ELEVATOR ONE (1) TRACTION / STEEL / CENTRALLY / PASSENGER (6TH FLOOR).
   
08/20/15 
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA HOUSING AUTHORITY / MARK A DORSEY
EN1502971 / SHOP DRAWING
TYPE OF ELEVATOR ONE (1) TRACTION / STEEL / CENTRALLY / PASSENGER (6TH FLOOR).
80 M ST SE   
08/24/15 
COLUMBIA PROPERTY TRUST / KRISTINA DELGADO
B1510944 / CONSTRUCTION
PARTIAL 4TH FLOOR RENOVATIONS INCLUDING MECHANICAL PLUMBING ELECTRICAL AS WELL AS FURNITURE INSTALLATION.
20 M ST SE   
08/19/15 
SOUTHEAST REALTY LLC / ELEANOR FARID; SOUTHEAST REALTY LLC; RODNEY CANNON
E69278004 / SUPPLEMENTAL
50 M ST SE   
08/14/15 
KCG 50 M LLC / JOSEPH E RICHARDS
E1508432 / SUPPLEMENTAL
   
08/21/15 
KCG 50 M LLC / DANIEL R. RUDE
P1508460 / SUPPLEMENTAL
55 M ST SE   
08/19/15 
DOUG OLSON / DOUG OLSON; NONE
SG1500414 / CONSTRUCTION
NEW SIGNS INSTALLATION AS PER PLANS
1500 M ST SE   
08/21/15 
WASHINGTON YACHT CLUB / ZACHARY ZILL
SB1500438 / CONSTRUCTION
SOIL BORING FOR COMPENSATION GROUTING ALONG THE ALIGNMENT OF DC WATER'S CLEAN RIVERS DIV H - ANACOSTIA RIVER TUNNEL. FORTEEN BORINGS TO MAX DEPTH OF 70 FEET BGS 2 INCH DIAMETER GROUT TUBES INSIDE 5.5 INCH DIA CASINGS. DUPLEX ROTARY DRILLING METHOD. REF. PERMIT SB1400400.
125 O ST SE   
08/28/15 
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA /
R1500073 / CONSTRUCTION
WOOD SHED
   
08/28/15 
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA / SAMAHA ASSOC.PC
R1500072 / CONSTRUCTION
ONE STORY BRICK STORAGE SHED
1500 SOUTH CAPITOL ST SE   
08/14/15 
P1508259 / SUPPLEMENTAL
355 WATER ST SE   
08/14/15 
TIAN LUU / TIAN LUU; TIAN LUU; JAMES BORROR
E95497821 / SUPPLEMENTAL
AH = After Hours; B = Alteration & Repair; D = Demolition; E = Electrical; FB = Boiler; M = Mechanical; P = Plumbing and Gas; PC = Post Card; R = Raze; SG = Sign; TL = Tenant Layout; TN = Tent; RW = Retaining Wall;

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