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May 2, 2013
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If you're in the mood for a spit-take with your morning coffee, this link should do it. WalletPop.com has posted what it apparently thinks is a legitimate study of the "25 Most Dangerous Neighborhoods" in the country, and coming in at #9 is.... Near Southeast???? Near Southeast, which hasn't had a murder since 20052004, and has had a grand total of seven assaults with a deadly weapon this year? And yet somehow this "exclusive data developed by Dr. Andrew Schiller's team at NeighborhoodScout.com" is predicting that there will be 240 violent crimes in the neighborhood each year. As reader A put it when passing the link along, "I think I could name at least 9 neighborhoods in DC more dangerous."
Perhaps when pulling together this clearly rigorous study they wandered by my map of the murders in Near Southeast between 1987 and 2004 and forgot to read the dates on the data. More likely is a glitch with their algorithm comparing crime reports with the size of the population (which has been pretty small in Near Southeast over the past few years). Or a mixup with addresses. But otherwise, my goodness....!
UPDATE: Further ruminations on this travesty of a mockery of a sham of a mockery of a travesty of two mockeries of a sham [ahem] from DCist and NBC4. And DC Urban Turf finds that this list has gotten into trouble in the past.
UPDATE II: Here's ABC7's video report on the story, which includes an extremely rare on-camera appearance by yours truly. As should be clear by now, if there's anything that gets me riled up, it's factual inaccuracies.
UPDATE III: And NBC4's 11 pm report. If indeed the study included number of stolen cars to consider a neighborhood "dangerous," then yes, I can see how Near SE's numbers would skew high, especially if they used 2008 crime data. (A lot of cars got stolen during the 2006-2008 era, when construction workers came to the area to build the stadium and other buildings, and there were few people on the streets during the day to act as "eyes and ears.") But still, does that make a neighborhood *dangerous*? Yeesh.
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JD but not that JD says: (10/4/10 11:46 AM)
Has to be based on old data or something. I used to live in Orlando, and that area around Paramore Ave is also an area under renewal...used to be bad...and it's no Bay Hill Country Club but I'm not sure that it is that dangerous anymore. Weird.


Rob says: (10/4/10 11:56 AM)
The methodologies used to calculate these lists are almost always flawed. But it doesn't really matter to the authors, because local media in all of these cities will report this "study" at face-value and draw undeserved attention to the website.


Mark says: (10/4/10 12:12 PM)
If you follow through the math on the page describing the crime in the neighborhood (link they're using a neighborhood population of 2155. How many years ago was that true?


Mark says: (10/4/10 12:13 PM)
Sorry, here's the correct link:
link


JD says: (10/4/10 12:13 PM)
Not that long ago, probably early 2009. It's about 3,500 now.


Bruce says: (10/4/10 1:18 PM)
Sadly, ALL of the bad press, etc that is dome regarding Near Southeast (I now JD likes this) Capitol Riverfront is done by folks who have apparently NEVER stepped foot in the area.
Sad considering that this is now such a safe area. Its livable/walkable to quote Tommy Wells...

Bruce


John says: (10/4/10 1:37 PM)
They definetly took numbers from back in 2005 or probably even before when all the housing projects were still up. Look at the lifestyle sections says 97% of the neighborhood is black and only 8% are govt. employees. Have these ppl ever heard of Trinidad, Anacostia, Berry Farms, Langston terrace, SW Cappers, Mount pleasant, just to name a few hoods with prob. 75% more crime....really makes u wonder how they messed up this badly....


JD says: (10/4/10 1:41 PM)
I tried to get through to look at their methodology, but their site is down even more often than JDLand is. :-)


SW says: (10/4/10 1:54 PM)
That list is garbage. How the hell can Detroit not even have one single 'hood qualify for that list.


Mauricio says: (10/4/10 2:10 PM)
All you have to do is look at the comments section of that article to realize that most of the folks reading it are fairly insane and not anyone you'd want living in DC anyway.


Meredith says: (10/4/10 3:15 PM)
News 4 is apparently running a story on it tonight--they interviewed me outside of the EYA model homes this afternoon. Caught me off-guard but I am glad I was able to say that I don't believe police reports would support this crazy assertion about L St and the neighborhood. Gave jdland a mention too as a site we often check for neighborhood info--thanks JD for keeping us all informed!


MJM says: (10/4/10 3:52 PM)
Maybe that site/study could have used this study (linked below) that started to show the changes in 2007. But hey 'hood scout got props from Money Magazine and they are used by Harvard, UC-Berkeley, U Penn, MIT and others researching real estate so it must be true. good grief.....

link

Near -Southeast is Cluster 27


MJM says: (10/4/10 4:07 PM)
Hood Scout Report Info
link


pkp says: (10/4/10 5:18 PM)
The opening sentence of a site disclaimer at the bottom of the crime tab:

"Although we work hard to provide premium quality information, the content contained in any NeighborhoodScout Report is a work of art."


JD says: (10/4/10 5:28 PM)
Thanks for the plug, Meredith!


BW says: (10/4/10 10:30 PM)
If recent trends continue, Near Southeast's population will top Detroit's in ...


CB says: (10/4/10 10:36 PM)
News crew at corner of 4th & L. No markings on side of truck, but suppose we are going to be on the news again this evening.


Will says: (10/5/10 1:00 PM)
On balance, I think this could be a positive thing for the hood. It's usually just folks who live in the area defending it, now we have local news and blogs speaking up. Many thanks to JDLand for correcting the record.


Meredith says: (10/5/10 10:19 PM)
To compare crime just on the Hill, take PSA 105 (Navy Yard S of 395, E of S. Cap) and PSA 102 (2nd-13th NE and D St to FL Ave NE). Per crimemap.dc.gov, reports for the last year (Oct 09-Oct 10) are as follows:
Violent Crime Incidents: PSA105 = 31 PSA102 = 170 Property Crime Incidents: PSA105 = 196 PSA102 = 752.
Even adjusting for number of residents, PSA105 comes out looking better/comparable to other parts of the Hill, certainly not astronomically more dangerous. And 31 violent crimes per 3000+ residents (not including the tens of thousands we absorb every workday and game day) means a person in PSA 105 has a 1 in 100 chance of being a victim, which is a far cry from the 1 in 9 claimed.

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City Government Data for Near Southeast Records added or updated recently displayed here; click the "archive" links to see additional detail and older records. All data from DC Government databases and RSS feeds. JDLand takes no responsibility for errors, omissions, etc. (read CapStat disclaimer). Data is retrieved daily.

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400 B/O K ST SE   THEFT F/AUTO
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Active Public Space Permits Archive  
1331 2ND ST SE    Carlton Ray 
Assigned
paving; streetfixture; excavation  
 02/10/14
to
02/09/15
1331 4TH ST SE    Forest City Forest City 
Issued
excavation; new  
 01/10/14
to
02/10/15
301 TINGEY ST SE    Potbelly Sandwich Works LLC 
Issued
new  
 03/21/12
to
11/27/14

Recent Issued Building Permits Archive  
1277 1ST ST SE   
11/21/14 
BALLPARK SQUARE LLC A DELAWARE LLC / DENNIS CONSULTING
SH1400051 / CONSTRUCTION
EROSION & SEDIMENT CONTROL SITE PERIMETER CONTROL EXCAVATION SHEETING & SHORING AND ASSOCIATED UTILITIES.
1331 2ND ST SE   
11/13/14 
DC WATER
SB1400419 / CONSTRUCTION
TYPE OF WELL(S):OBSERVATION WELLS INCLINOMETERS VW PIEZOMETERS AND EXTENSOMETERS FOR UPGRADE OF DC WATER CLEAN RIVERS PROJECT DIVISION I. NUMBER OF WELL(S):112. DEPTH OF WELL(S):UP TO 60 FT. DIAMETER OF WELL(S): 6". DRILLING METHOD: CASED AND HSA. PLEASE SEE THE ATTACHED WORKPLAN.
200 I ST SE   
11/24/14 
HASSAN DEPT. OF GENERAL SERVICES
PC24903284 / POST CARD
INTERIOR DEMOLITION OF NON-BEARING ELEMENTS IN A SPACE UP TO 5 000 SQUARE FEET (464.5 SQUARE METERS)
   
11/24/14 
DEPT OF GENERAL SERVICES DC / DEPT OF GENERAL DC
PC43136454 / POST CARD
INSTALLATION OF NOT MORE THAN 10 NEW OUTLETS AND NOT MORE THAN 10 NEW LIGHTING FIXTURES FOR A RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL OR INDUSTRIAL PROJECT.
332 K ST SE   
11/10/14 
KRISTIN L HENRIKSON / JOHN A. TETI
E1501053 / SUPPLEMENTAL
80 M ST SE   
11/12/14 
WELLS REIT II 80 M STREET LLC / RONNIE E WRIGHT
E1501089 / SUPPLEMENTAL
20 M ST SE   
11/21/14 
SOUTH EAST REALTY LLC SOUTH EAST REALTY LLC / ADOLPHUS SIMMONS; SOUTH EAST REAL SOUTH EAST REALTY LLC; ADOLPHUS SIMMONS
P92093458 / SUPPLEMENTAL
80 M ST SE   
11/21/14 
VEIC EXPANSION / DAVID RAINE; VEIC EXPANSION; DAVID RAINE
P77248641 / SUPPLEMENTAL
   
11/22/14 
NICHOLAS DODD / NICHOLAS DODD; NICHOLAS DODD; NICHOLAS DODD
E45845237 / SUPPLEMENTAL
901 M ST SE   
11/13/14 
CARLTON RAY
AH1500084 / CONSTRUCTION
TO PERFORM TEMPORARY LANE CLOSURES
1201 M ST SE   
11/13/14 
CARLTON RAY
AH1500085 / CONSTRUCTION
TO PERFORM TEMPORARY LANE CLOSURES
801 NEW JERSEY AVE SE   
11/12/14 
GREYSTAR / JOHN MORIARTY AND ASSOC.
F1500068 / CONSTRUCTION
INSTALL A TEMPORARY CONSTRUCTION SITE FENCE ON PRIVATE PROPERTY. FENCE TO BE 6' HIGH ON BLOCK SUPPORTS.
880 NEW JERSEY AVE SE   
11/19/14 
880 NEW JERSEY AVENUE LLC / OTIS ELEVATOR COMPANY
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11/20/14 
BAKER DC / CHRISTINE LONG
AH1500122 / CONSTRUCTION
AN AFTER HOURS PERMIT IS RESPECTFULLY REQUESTED FROM 12:01 AM THRU11:59 PM
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11/10/14 
SQUARE 742 LLC / ELMUBARK E. ELNAHAS
E1501060 / SUPPLEMENTAL
125 O ST SE   
11/14/14 
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA FOREST CITY WASHINGTON / JOPATRIC AMERICODE
SB1400418 / CONSTRUCTION
EIGHT SOIL BORINGS ON PRIVATE PROPERTY. FOREST CITY F1 BLOCK CINEMA BORINGS SHALL BE 10 INCH DIAMETER MUD ROTARY METHOD; 2 SHALL BE DRILLED TO A DEPTH OF 100 FEET AND 6 TO A DEPTH OF 60 FEET; IF THE CONFINING UNIT IS ENCOUNTERED DURING DRILLING THEN ADVANCEMENT OF THE AUGERS SHOULD BE HALTED AND THE PERMANENT OUTER CASING SHOULD BE SET INTO 10 FEET (IF THE CONFINING UNIT IS THINNER THAN 10FT OUTER...
25 POTOMAC AVE SE   
11/10/14 
BARR CONCRETE
TC1500004 / CONSTRUCTION
TOWERCRANE FOR JOBSITE USE
921 POTOMAC AVE SE   
11/20/14 
PAUL A GHIOTTO / MURRAY LYONS
P1501384 / SUPPLEMENTAL
300 TINGEY ST SE   
11/24/14 
FC BOILERMAKER LLC / MATT LOSIGNOR
P1501478 / SUPPLEMENTAL
   
11/12/14 
FC BOILERMAKER LLC / FRED LATIMORE
E1501087 / SUPPLEMENTAL
   
11/22/14 
FC BOILERMAKER LLC / GREGORY BIRCKHEAD; FC BOILERMAKER LLC; MICHAEL BELL
E55526822 / SUPPLEMENTAL
401 TINGEY ST SE   
11/20/14 
FOREST CITY / FVI 2020
SB1500055 / CONSTRUCTION
EXTENSION TO WORK IN REFERENCE WITH PERMIT SB1200282. SECOND EXTENSION FROM 10.25.14 TO 4.25.15
AH = After Hours; B = Alteration & Repair; D = Demolition; E = Electrical; FB = Boiler; M = Mechanical; P = Plumbing and Gas; PC = Post Card; R = Raze; SG = Sign; TL = Tenant Layout; TN = Tent; RW = Retaining Wall;

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CUSHING PL   09/11/14
$ 9,000,000
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HALF ST   09/11/14
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$ 12,500,000
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$ 12,500,000
HALF STREET RESIDENTIAL PJV LLC
 
N ST   09/11/14
$ 12,500,000
HALF STREET RESIDENTIAL PJV LLC
 
HALF ST   09/11/14
$ 12,500,000
MR BP RESIDENTIAL #1A LLC
 
N ST   09/11/14
$ 12,500,000
MR BP RESIDENTIAL #1A LLC
 


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