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If you're in the mood for a spit-take with your morning coffee, this link should do it. WalletPop.com has posted what it apparently thinks is a legitimate study of the "25 Most Dangerous Neighborhoods" in the country, and coming in at #9 is.... Near Southeast???? Near Southeast, which hasn't had a murder since 20052004, and has had a grand total of seven assaults with a deadly weapon this year? And yet somehow this "exclusive data developed by Dr. Andrew Schiller's team at NeighborhoodScout.com" is predicting that there will be 240 violent crimes in the neighborhood each year. As reader A put it when passing the link along, "I think I could name at least 9 neighborhoods in DC more dangerous."
Perhaps when pulling together this clearly rigorous study they wandered by my map of the murders in Near Southeast between 1987 and 2004 and forgot to read the dates on the data. More likely is a glitch with their algorithm comparing crime reports with the size of the population (which has been pretty small in Near Southeast over the past few years). Or a mixup with addresses. But otherwise, my goodness....!
UPDATE: Further ruminations on this travesty of a mockery of a sham of a mockery of a travesty of two mockeries of a sham [ahem] from DCist and NBC4. And DC Urban Turf finds that this list has gotten into trouble in the past.
UPDATE II: Here's ABC7's video report on the story, which includes an extremely rare on-camera appearance by yours truly. As should be clear by now, if there's anything that gets me riled up, it's factual inaccuracies.
UPDATE III: And NBC4's 11 pm report. If indeed the study included number of stolen cars to consider a neighborhood "dangerous," then yes, I can see how Near SE's numbers would skew high, especially if they used 2008 crime data. (A lot of cars got stolen during the 2006-2008 era, when construction workers came to the area to build the stadium and other buildings, and there were few people on the streets during the day to act as "eyes and ears.") But still, does that make a neighborhood *dangerous*? Yeesh.
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JD but not that JD says: (10/4/10 11:46 AM)
Has to be based on old data or something. I used to live in Orlando, and that area around Paramore Ave is also an area under renewal...used to be bad...and it's no Bay Hill Country Club but I'm not sure that it is that dangerous anymore. Weird.


Rob says: (10/4/10 11:56 AM)
The methodologies used to calculate these lists are almost always flawed. But it doesn't really matter to the authors, because local media in all of these cities will report this "study" at face-value and draw undeserved attention to the website.


Mark says: (10/4/10 12:12 PM)
If you follow through the math on the page describing the crime in the neighborhood (link they're using a neighborhood population of 2155. How many years ago was that true?


Mark says: (10/4/10 12:13 PM)
Sorry, here's the correct link:
link


JD says: (10/4/10 12:13 PM)
Not that long ago, probably early 2009. It's about 3,500 now.


Bruce says: (10/4/10 1:18 PM)
Sadly, ALL of the bad press, etc that is dome regarding Near Southeast (I now JD likes this) Capitol Riverfront is done by folks who have apparently NEVER stepped foot in the area.
Sad considering that this is now such a safe area. Its livable/walkable to quote Tommy Wells...

Bruce


John says: (10/4/10 1:37 PM)
They definetly took numbers from back in 2005 or probably even before when all the housing projects were still up. Look at the lifestyle sections says 97% of the neighborhood is black and only 8% are govt. employees. Have these ppl ever heard of Trinidad, Anacostia, Berry Farms, Langston terrace, SW Cappers, Mount pleasant, just to name a few hoods with prob. 75% more crime....really makes u wonder how they messed up this badly....


JD says: (10/4/10 1:41 PM)
I tried to get through to look at their methodology, but their site is down even more often than JDLand is. :-)


SW says: (10/4/10 1:54 PM)
That list is garbage. How the hell can Detroit not even have one single 'hood qualify for that list.


Mauricio says: (10/4/10 2:10 PM)
All you have to do is look at the comments section of that article to realize that most of the folks reading it are fairly insane and not anyone you'd want living in DC anyway.


Meredith says: (10/4/10 3:15 PM)
News 4 is apparently running a story on it tonight--they interviewed me outside of the EYA model homes this afternoon. Caught me off-guard but I am glad I was able to say that I don't believe police reports would support this crazy assertion about L St and the neighborhood. Gave jdland a mention too as a site we often check for neighborhood info--thanks JD for keeping us all informed!


MJM says: (10/4/10 3:52 PM)
Maybe that site/study could have used this study (linked below) that started to show the changes in 2007. But hey 'hood scout got props from Money Magazine and they are used by Harvard, UC-Berkeley, U Penn, MIT and others researching real estate so it must be true. good grief.....

link

Near -Southeast is Cluster 27


MJM says: (10/4/10 4:07 PM)
Hood Scout Report Info
link


pkp says: (10/4/10 5:18 PM)
The opening sentence of a site disclaimer at the bottom of the crime tab:

"Although we work hard to provide premium quality information, the content contained in any NeighborhoodScout Report is a work of art."


JD says: (10/4/10 5:28 PM)
Thanks for the plug, Meredith!


BW says: (10/4/10 10:30 PM)
If recent trends continue, Near Southeast's population will top Detroit's in ...


CB says: (10/4/10 10:36 PM)
News crew at corner of 4th & L. No markings on side of truck, but suppose we are going to be on the news again this evening.


Will says: (10/5/10 1:00 PM)
On balance, I think this could be a positive thing for the hood. It's usually just folks who live in the area defending it, now we have local news and blogs speaking up. Many thanks to JDLand for correcting the record.


Meredith says: (10/5/10 10:19 PM)
To compare crime just on the Hill, take PSA 105 (Navy Yard S of 395, E of S. Cap) and PSA 102 (2nd-13th NE and D St to FL Ave NE). Per crimemap.dc.gov, reports for the last year (Oct 09-Oct 10) are as follows:
Violent Crime Incidents: PSA105 = 31 PSA102 = 170 Property Crime Incidents: PSA105 = 196 PSA102 = 752.
Even adjusting for number of residents, PSA105 comes out looking better/comparable to other parts of the Hill, certainly not astronomically more dangerous. And 31 violent crimes per 3000+ residents (not including the tens of thousands we absorb every workday and game day) means a person in PSA 105 has a 1 in 100 chance of being a victim, which is a far cry from the 1 in 9 claimed.

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City Government Data for Near Southeast Records added or updated recently displayed here; click the "archive" links to see additional detail and older records. All data from DC Government databases and RSS feeds. JDLand takes no responsibility for errors, omissions, etc. (read CapStat disclaimer). Data is retrieved daily.

Recent Crime Incidents Archive  
1100 B/O 10TH ST SE   THEFT F/AUTO /  09/08/14
400 B/O K ST SE   THEFT F/AUTO /  09/08/14
1000 B/O 4TH ST SE   THEFT F/AUTO /  09/05/14
300 B/O M ST SE   ROBBERY /  09/03/14
900 B/O 1ST ST SE   THEFT F/AUTO /  09/03/14
1000 B/O 1ST ST SE   THEFT /  09/03/14
1200 B/O 4TH ST SE   THEFT F/AUTO /  09/02/14
200 B/O M ST SE   THEFT /  09/02/14
300 B/O M ST SE   THEFT /  09/02/14
1100 B/O NEW JERSEY AVE SE   THEFT /  09/01/14
300 B/O K ST SE   THEFT F/AUTO /  08/31/14
1100 B/O 10TH ST SE   THEFT F/AUTO /  08/31/14
300 B/O I ST SE   MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT /  08/30/14
1400 B/O 1ST ST SE   THEFT /  08/29/14
300 B/O WATER ST SE   MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT /  08/27/14
3RD ST SE AND WATER ST SE   THEFT F/AUTO /  08/26/14
100 B/O K ST SE   THEFT F/AUTO /  08/25/14
400 B/O M ST SE   MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT /  08/23/14
1000 B/O NEW JERSEY AVE SE   THEFT /  08/22/14
200 B/O I ST SE   THEFT /  08/22/14
900 B/O HALF ST SE   MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT /  08/22/14

Active Public Space Permits Archive  
1331 2ND ST SE    Carlton Ray 
Assigned
paving; streetfixture; excavation  
 02/10/14
to
02/09/15
908 3RD ST SE    Rachel Frankel 
Issued
streetfixture; new  
 07/24/14
to
09/21/14
1331 4TH ST SE    Forest City Forest City 
Issued
excavation; new  
 01/10/14
to
02/10/15
880 NEW JERSEY AVE SE    WASHINGTON GAS 
Issued
excavation; new  
 07/28/14
to
09/26/14
301 TINGEY ST SE    Potbelly Sandwich Works LLC 
Issued
new  
 03/21/12
to
11/27/14

Recent Issued Building Permits Archive  
1011 1ST ST SE   
09/03/14 
TOLL DC LP / MILLENNIUM POOL
SP1400019 / CONSTRUCTION
INSTALL STAINLESS STEEL POOL ON ROOFTOP OF THE 13-FLOOR APARTMENT BUILDING.
1200 1ST ST SE   
09/05/14 
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA / FVI2020
EX1400033 / CONSTRUCTION
EXCAVATION SITE GRADING ONLY
1020 3RD ST SE   
09/03/14 
MAYIAK LLC / SMK AND ASSOCIATES LLC
B1411577 / CONSTRUCTION
REPAIR OR REPLACE IN KIND KITCHEN CABINETS TILE ON KITCHEN FLOORS. REPLACE FLOORS THROUGHOUT REPLACE BATHROOM VANITY TOILET TUB . PAINT EXTERIOR WINDOW LEDGES AND FRONT PORCH
1212 4TH ST SE   
09/09/14 
FC 1212 LLC /
FB1400131 / SUPPLEMENTAL
   
09/09/14 
FC 1212 LLC / WENDELL D. NIXON
M1403160 / SUPPLEMENTAL
1331 4TH ST SE   
09/09/14 
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA /
P1407907 / SUPPLEMENTAL
1103 9TH ST SE   
09/16/14 
ICP PARTNERS POTOMAC 810 LLC / FRANKLIN T GAINES
P1408621 / SUPPLEMENTAL
1220 12TH ST SE   
09/18/14 
WASHINGTON GAS LIGHT CO / GREGORY E LIGON
E1409179 / SUPPLEMENTAL
1200 13TH ST SE   
09/03/14 
WASHINGTON GAS LIGHT COMPANY / CHRIS WILLETT URS CORPORATION
SB1400412 / CONSTRUCTION
DCCR PROPOSES TO DRILL TWO GEOTECHNICAL BOARINGS MS-MW-02D & MS-MW-02S LOCATED AT 1200 13TH ST SE. BOTH BOARINGS WILL BE 6 INCHES IN DIAMETER 02D WILL BE 36 FEET DEEP WIOTH A 10 FOOT SCREENED INTERVAL STARTING AT 25 FEET DEEP AND 02S WILL BE 23 FEET DEEP WITH A 10 FOOT SCREENED INTERVAL STARTING AT 13 FEET DEEP. BOTH WILL BE DIRLLED WITH HOLLOW STEM AUGER. NO PERMANENT CASING WILL BE INSTALLED. SE...
   
09/03/14 
WASHINGTON GAS LIGHT COMPANY / CHRIS WILLETT URS CORPORATION
SB1400413 / CONSTRUCTION
DCCR PROPOSES TO DRILL ONE GEOTECHNICAL BORING MS-MW 01 LOCATED IN 1200 13TH ST SE. THE BORING WILL BE 6 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND 200 FEET BGS WITH A SCREENED INTERVAL FROM 135 TO 195 FEET BGS DRILLED BY MUD ROTARY. PERMANENT STELL CASING WILL INSTALLED AND BE SOCKETED 10 FEET INTO P / A AND GROUTED BEFORE DRILLING INTO THE PTX. MSDS FOR DRILLING MUD ADDITIVES ATTACHED. SEE IDW MANAGEMENT PLAN AND A...
1015 HALF ST SE   
09/04/14 
HALF ST SE LLC /
P1408319 / SUPPLEMENTAL
601 L ST SE   
09/02/14 
V ? V CONSTRUCTION / STEPHANIE DELCA TRAFFIC ENGINEERING SERVCIES LLC
TC1400023 / CONSTRUCTION
TO ERECT TOWER CRANE AS PER PLANS.
   
09/16/14 
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA HOUSING AUTHORITY / EDUARDO L. LOPEZ
E1409105 / SUPPLEMENTAL
   
09/18/14 
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA HOUSING AUTHORITY / RICHARD V CAREY
P1408678 / SUPPLEMENTAL
20 M ST SE   
09/08/14 
SOUTHEAST REALTY LLC / WESLEY R. DAVIS
E1408797 / SUPPLEMENTAL
55 M ST SE   
09/11/14 
HINES GLOBAL REIT 55 M STREET LLC / DANIEL O WHITE
E1408953 / SUPPLEMENTAL
100 M ST SE   
09/15/14 
SQUARE 743 INC. / SAM HOLLEN RAMCO OF DC INC.
TL1400150 / CONSTRUCTION
INTERIOR TENANT LAYOUT OF 6TH FLOOR OFFICE SPACE. PARTITIONS FURNITURE MEP AND LIFE SAFETY. REGUS 2429
901 M ST SE   
09/12/14 
CARLTON RAY
AH1400687 / CONSTRUCTION
TO PERFORM TEMPORARY LANE CLOSURES
1201 M ST SE   
09/12/14 
CARLTON RAY
AH1400686 / CONSTRUCTION
TO PERFORM TEMPORARY LANE CLOSURES
0 N ST SE   
09/10/14 
SNALLYGASTER / ERIK BERGMAN
TN1400195 / CONSTRUCTION
SPECIAL EVENT SNALLYGASTER 1 10X40 TENT 1 20X90 TENT 2 20X160 TENT 1 30X15 STAGE TENT TEMPORARY GENERATOR
   
09/10/14 
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA / JAMES A. WILLIAMS
E1408914 / SUPPLEMENTAL
800 NEW JERSEY AVE SE   
09/17/14 
NEW JERSEY AT H LLC / COLIN CLARK
B1408553 / CONSTRUCTION
CONSTRUCTION OF A 11 STORY 336 UNIT APARTMENT BUILDING WITH FIRST FLOOR RETAIL AND THREE BELOW GRADE LEVELS FOR PARKING GARAGE PER BZA # 18619 GRANTED ON 9 / 24 / 13 WITH CONDITION: SCREENING OF THE PARKING ADJACENT TO H ST.--- SPECIFICALLY SHEETS 6 AND 7 OF EXHIBIT 23 - PLANS TO INCLUDE MECHANICAL PLUMBING AND ELECTRICAL WORK.
25 POTOMAC AVE SE   
09/09/14 
GRIFFIN STEPHEN
PC60869040 / POST CARD
INSTALLATION OF 1 TEMPORARY CONSTRUCTION TRAILER ON PRIVATE PROPERTY.
1500 SOUTH CAPITOL ST SE   
09/09/14 
COMCAST CABLE / MICHAEL SONESEN
AH1400678 / CONSTRUCTION
PLACING INNERDUCT IN EXISITING VERIZON MANHOLES SEPTEMEBR 5TH 2014 - OCTOBER 5TH 2014 EVENINGS ? SATRUDAYS 7PM TO 2AM
300 TINGEY ST SE   
09/11/14 
FC BOILERMAKER LLC / CHRIS WING
B1407179 / CONSTRUCTION
INTERIOR ALTERATION FOR NEW UNLEASHED BY PETCO STORE.
   
09/05/14 
FC BOILERMAKER LLC
B1411671 / CONSTRUCTION
INSTALL FIRE SUPPRESSION SYSTEM TO EXHAUST HOOD.
   
09/13/14 
FC BOILERMAKER LIC FC BOILERMAKER LIC / DENNIS STUBBS; FC BOILERMAKER FC BOILERMAKER LIC; DENNIS STUBBS
P24303627 / SUPPLEMENTAL
   
09/18/14 
FC BOILERMAKER LLC /
P1408685 / SUPPLEMENTAL
   
09/18/14 
CHRIS WING / SHANDI COBB; CHRIS WING; CHARLES CLYNES
AR65033933 / SUPPLEMENTAL
AH = After Hours; B = Alteration & Repair; D = Demolition; E = Electrical; FB = Boiler; M = Mechanical; P = Plumbing and Gas; PC = Post Card; R = Raze; SG = Sign; TL = Tenant Layout; TN = Tent; RW = Retaining Wall;

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