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October 19, 2014
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If you're in the mood for a spit-take with your morning coffee, this link should do it. WalletPop.com has posted what it apparently thinks is a legitimate study of the "25 Most Dangerous Neighborhoods" in the country, and coming in at #9 is.... Near Southeast???? Near Southeast, which hasn't had a murder since 20052004, and has had a grand total of seven assaults with a deadly weapon this year? And yet somehow this "exclusive data developed by Dr. Andrew Schiller's team at NeighborhoodScout.com" is predicting that there will be 240 violent crimes in the neighborhood each year. As reader A put it when passing the link along, "I think I could name at least 9 neighborhoods in DC more dangerous."
Perhaps when pulling together this clearly rigorous study they wandered by my map of the murders in Near Southeast between 1987 and 2004 and forgot to read the dates on the data. More likely is a glitch with their algorithm comparing crime reports with the size of the population (which has been pretty small in Near Southeast over the past few years). Or a mixup with addresses. But otherwise, my goodness....!
UPDATE: Further ruminations on this travesty of a mockery of a sham of a mockery of a travesty of two mockeries of a sham [ahem] from DCist and NBC4. And DC Urban Turf finds that this list has gotten into trouble in the past.
UPDATE II: Here's ABC7's video report on the story, which includes an extremely rare on-camera appearance by yours truly. As should be clear by now, if there's anything that gets me riled up, it's factual inaccuracies.
UPDATE III: And NBC4's 11 pm report. If indeed the study included number of stolen cars to consider a neighborhood "dangerous," then yes, I can see how Near SE's numbers would skew high, especially if they used 2008 crime data. (A lot of cars got stolen during the 2006-2008 era, when construction workers came to the area to build the stadium and other buildings, and there were few people on the streets during the day to act as "eyes and ears.") But still, does that make a neighborhood *dangerous*? Yeesh.
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JD but not that JD says: (10/4/10 11:46 AM)
Has to be based on old data or something. I used to live in Orlando, and that area around Paramore Ave is also an area under renewal...used to be bad...and it's no Bay Hill Country Club but I'm not sure that it is that dangerous anymore. Weird.


Rob says: (10/4/10 11:56 AM)
The methodologies used to calculate these lists are almost always flawed. But it doesn't really matter to the authors, because local media in all of these cities will report this "study" at face-value and draw undeserved attention to the website.


Mark says: (10/4/10 12:12 PM)
If you follow through the math on the page describing the crime in the neighborhood (link they're using a neighborhood population of 2155. How many years ago was that true?


Mark says: (10/4/10 12:13 PM)
Sorry, here's the correct link:
link


JD says: (10/4/10 12:13 PM)
Not that long ago, probably early 2009. It's about 3,500 now.


Bruce says: (10/4/10 1:18 PM)
Sadly, ALL of the bad press, etc that is dome regarding Near Southeast (I now JD likes this) Capitol Riverfront is done by folks who have apparently NEVER stepped foot in the area.
Sad considering that this is now such a safe area. Its livable/walkable to quote Tommy Wells...

Bruce


John says: (10/4/10 1:37 PM)
They definetly took numbers from back in 2005 or probably even before when all the housing projects were still up. Look at the lifestyle sections says 97% of the neighborhood is black and only 8% are govt. employees. Have these ppl ever heard of Trinidad, Anacostia, Berry Farms, Langston terrace, SW Cappers, Mount pleasant, just to name a few hoods with prob. 75% more crime....really makes u wonder how they messed up this badly....


JD says: (10/4/10 1:41 PM)
I tried to get through to look at their methodology, but their site is down even more often than JDLand is. :-)


SW says: (10/4/10 1:54 PM)
That list is garbage. How the hell can Detroit not even have one single 'hood qualify for that list.


Mauricio says: (10/4/10 2:10 PM)
All you have to do is look at the comments section of that article to realize that most of the folks reading it are fairly insane and not anyone you'd want living in DC anyway.


Meredith says: (10/4/10 3:15 PM)
News 4 is apparently running a story on it tonight--they interviewed me outside of the EYA model homes this afternoon. Caught me off-guard but I am glad I was able to say that I don't believe police reports would support this crazy assertion about L St and the neighborhood. Gave jdland a mention too as a site we often check for neighborhood info--thanks JD for keeping us all informed!


MJM says: (10/4/10 3:52 PM)
Maybe that site/study could have used this study (linked below) that started to show the changes in 2007. But hey 'hood scout got props from Money Magazine and they are used by Harvard, UC-Berkeley, U Penn, MIT and others researching real estate so it must be true. good grief.....

link

Near -Southeast is Cluster 27


MJM says: (10/4/10 4:07 PM)
Hood Scout Report Info
link


pkp says: (10/4/10 5:18 PM)
The opening sentence of a site disclaimer at the bottom of the crime tab:

"Although we work hard to provide premium quality information, the content contained in any NeighborhoodScout Report is a work of art."


JD says: (10/4/10 5:28 PM)
Thanks for the plug, Meredith!


BW says: (10/4/10 10:30 PM)
If recent trends continue, Near Southeast's population will top Detroit's in ...


CB says: (10/4/10 10:36 PM)
News crew at corner of 4th & L. No markings on side of truck, but suppose we are going to be on the news again this evening.


Will says: (10/5/10 1:00 PM)
On balance, I think this could be a positive thing for the hood. It's usually just folks who live in the area defending it, now we have local news and blogs speaking up. Many thanks to JDLand for correcting the record.


Meredith says: (10/5/10 10:19 PM)
To compare crime just on the Hill, take PSA 105 (Navy Yard S of 395, E of S. Cap) and PSA 102 (2nd-13th NE and D St to FL Ave NE). Per crimemap.dc.gov, reports for the last year (Oct 09-Oct 10) are as follows:
Violent Crime Incidents: PSA105 = 31 PSA102 = 170 Property Crime Incidents: PSA105 = 196 PSA102 = 752.
Even adjusting for number of residents, PSA105 comes out looking better/comparable to other parts of the Hill, certainly not astronomically more dangerous. And 31 violent crimes per 3000+ residents (not including the tens of thousands we absorb every workday and game day) means a person in PSA 105 has a 1 in 100 chance of being a victim, which is a far cry from the 1 in 9 claimed.

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City Government Data for Near Southeast Records added or updated recently displayed here; click the "archive" links to see additional detail and older records. All data from DC Government databases and RSS feeds. JDLand takes no responsibility for errors, omissions, etc. (read CapStat disclaimer). Data is retrieved daily.

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1331 2ND ST SE    Carlton Ray 
Assigned
paving; streetfixture; excavation  
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to
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1331 4TH ST SE    Forest City Forest City 
Issued
excavation; new  
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Recent Issued Building Permits Archive  
1025 1ST ST SE   
12/03/14 
NA NA NA
EHOP1590134 / HOME OCCUPATION
   
12/10/14 
KAREN NZAKIMUENA
PC74349112 / POST CARD
INSTALLATION OF NOT MORE THAN 1 NEW AIR CONDITIONING UNIT UP TO A MAXIMUM OF 10-TONS OF EQUIVALENT REFRIGERATING EFFECT.
1016 3RD ST SE   
12/15/14 
ANAMARIA R MOTTOLA / DIXON
B1502438 / CONSTRUCTION
RENOVATIONS MINOR MEP
1212 4TH ST SE   
12/10/14 
FC 1212 LLC / SCHINDLER ELEVATOR CORP
ER1500593 / SHOP DRAWING
REPLACE MAXTON UC2A VALVE EST. COST OF WORK $ 2 2120. 00
927 5TH ST SE   
12/15/14 
AARON LORENZO
PC25919394 / POST CARD
REPLACEMENT IN KIND OF EXISTING FENCE ON PRIVATE PROPERTY. REPLACEMENT IN KIND WHEN APPLIED TO ARCHITECTURAL FEATURES MEANS REPLACEMENT WITH A FEATURE OF LIKE MATERIAL THAT REPLICATES THE EXISTING FEATURE IN PROPORTION APPEARANCE TEXTURE DESIGN DETAIL AND DIMENSIONS.
1000 5TH ST SE   
12/04/14 
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA / WALTER T JONES
E1501598 / SUPPLEMENTAL
1015 HALF ST SE   
12/10/14 
HALF STREET LLC / ART DISPLAY; BOB BIROONAK ART DISPLAY CO.
SG1400465 / CONSTRUCTION
ONE ILLUMINATED NEWS TICKER SIGN
1201 HALF ST SE   
12/10/14 
WEST HALF 1 LLC / MARK W GIBSON
E1501746 / SUPPLEMENTAL
   
12/12/14 
JASON YORK
TN1500036 / CONSTRUCTION
INSTALLING SMALL TENT ON DEC 29 2014 FOR THE BRIDGESTONE WINTER CLASSIC ON 1-1-15 WITH GENERATOR TENTS REMOVED ON 1-2-15
808 L ST SE   
12/10/14 
NAVY YARD ASSOCIATES LLC / KE-MAURELLE PREDDIE
B1412006 / CONSTRUCTION
NEW OFFICE USE FOR 1254 SQ. FT. EXISTING TWO STORIES PLUS BASEMENT STRUCTURE ON SE / C-3-A ZONING DISTRICT. MECHANICAL ELECTRICAL AND PLUMBING REMAIN AS IS.
80 M ST SE   
12/10/14 
WELLS REIT II 80 M STREET LLC / ANTHONY G SAMBURG
E1501724 / SUPPLEMENTAL
14 M ST SE   
12/16/14 
ROMAN CATHOLIC ARCHBISHOP OF WASHINGTON / PHILLIP B. MOBLEY
FB1500047 / SUPPLEMENTAL
20 M ST SE   
12/04/14 
TRANSWESTERN JEFFREY GROSS / OLLIE READ; TRANSWESTERN JEFFREY GROSS; CHRISTOPHER SCHULZE
AR66514546 / SUPPLEMENTAL
   
12/04/14 
TRANSWESTERN JEFFERY W GROSS / ANDREW ARNTSON; TRANSWESTERN JEFFERY W GROSS; ANDREW ARNTSON
P96600069 / SUPPLEMENTAL
80 M ST SE   
12/03/14 
MARY JACKSON
PC44081129 / POST CARD
REPLACEMENT OF NOT MORE THAN 1 GAS APPLIANCE ON A RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL OR INDUSTRIAL PROJECT.
   
12/05/14 
WELLS REIT II 80 M STREET LLC /
P1501746 / SUPPLEMENTAL
100 M ST SE   
12/03/14 
SQUARE 743 INC. / SAM HOLLEN RAMCO OF DC INC.
B1502037 / CONSTRUCTION
INTERIOR RENOVATION TO 4TH FLOOR OFFICE SPACE. SUBDIVIDE TENANT SPACE AND ADD PANTRY. PARTITIONS MEP AND LIFE SAFETY. NORTHWOOD INVESTORS LLC
202 M ST SE   
12/10/14 
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA / WOODY WICKLIFFE
TN1500035 / CONSTRUCTION
INSTALL 50FT X 100FT TENT NO GENERATORS NO COOKING NO SMOKING NO STAGES 10FT X 70FT TENT INSTALLED DEC 11-15 2014 EVENTS DEC 12-14 2014 12:01PM - 9:00 PM
1201 M ST SE   
12/11/14 
CARLTON RAY
AH1500149 / CONSTRUCTION
TO PERFORM TEMPORARY LANE CLOSURES
75 N ST SE   
12/11/14 
CRANE SERVICE CO / CHRISTINE LONG
AH1500150 / CONSTRUCTION
AN AFTER HOURS PERMIT IS RESPECTFULLY REQUESTED FROM 2:00AM THRU 11:00PM
800 NEW JERSEY AVE SE   
12/08/14 
SQUARE 737 LLC / GLENNWOOD ROGERS
P1501673 / SUPPLEMENTAL
25 POTOMAC AVE SE   
12/02/14 
RIVERFRONT HOLDINGS I LLC C/O ECC INC. / ECC INC.
UT1500007 / CONSTRUCTION
REMOVAL OF ONE 100-GALLON UNDERGROUND STORAGE TANK DURING MASS EXCAVATION ACTIVITIES FOR SITE REDEVELOPMENT.
   
12/03/14 
RIVERFRONT HOLDINGS I LLC / WOODY WICKLIFFE
TN1500032 / CONSTRUCTION
INSTALL 40FT X 80FT TENT NO COOKING NO SMOKING NO PROPANE NO LIGHTING 40FT X 40FT TENT 2 GENERATORS 25KW EACH 20FT X 20FT TENT 8FT X 20FT PLATFORM 40FT X 40FT PLATFORM 20FT X 20FT PLATFORM INSTALLED DEC 8 -9 2014 EVENT DEC 9 2014 9AM - 4PM
   
12/05/14 
FLORIDA ROCK PROPERTIES INC / ROBERT S. WATTS
E1501658 / SUPPLEMENTAL
   
12/05/14 
RIVERFRONT INVESTMENT PARTNERS / JASON BENTLEY
B1408697 / CONSTRUCTION
CONSTRUCTION OF NEW 9 STORY BUILDING. THIRD PARTY REVIEW
1500 SOUTH CAPITOL ST SE   
12/18/14 
NATIONALS PARK / MARK W GIBSON
E1501975 / SUPPLEMENTAL
300 TINGEY ST SE   
12/15/14 
FC BOILERMAKER LLC / GREGORY BIRCKHEAD; FC BOILERMAKER LLC; MICHAEL BELL
E55526822 / SUPPLEMENTAL
AH = After Hours; B = Alteration & Repair; D = Demolition; E = Electrical; FB = Boiler; M = Mechanical; P = Plumbing and Gas; PC = Post Card; R = Raze; SG = Sign; TL = Tenant Layout; TN = Tent; RW = Retaining Wall;

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