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September 30, 2005
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At last, here is my travelogue from our Trip to Michigan (perhaps Bill will follow with one of his own). I've posted about 60 photos that you can browse at your leisure, to help illustrate the torrent of words that follow here....
Days 1-2
These were mainly The Man's days, as we arrived in Detroit for his 25th high school reunion. Landed at Detroit Metro, endured the interminable wait for luggage followed by the Death March to the rental-car shuttle stand. Then we made a beeline for White Castle, toured Bill's old 'hood to see his old haunts, went out to Ann Arbor to hang with his buddy Paul (our wedding M.C.), and then went to the shindig itself on Saturday night. We also went looking for a few houses where my father's relatives lived back in the 1930s, finding a few of them, but alas didn't see the house my grandfather built in Berkley, since I had the address of the house from before it was moved across the street to make way for a school.
The best part of this first leg of our trip was at the very end, when we left the reunion and headed to the Green Lantern at 12 Mile and John R. for pizza. Dear God, it might be the best ever. Lots of crust, but very light and airy. And tiny pepperonis that are perfectly crisped on the edges. Recommended most highly.
(don't forget the photos) Days 3-4
After giving Bill another White Castle fix (trying out their breakfast offerings), we set out north on I-75, oohing and aahing as we passed Frankenmuth (a fixture of Michigan "culture"). We crossed the Mackinac Bridge (pronounce it "MackinAW", otherwise the locals will beat you senseless) and drove into St. Ignace, grabbing a dose of vanilla-with-Mackinac-chocolate-fudge ice cream while waiting for the boat over to Mackinac Island. For those who don't know about Mackinac, it's an island right off the coast of both Michigan peninsulas, where cars and motorized vehicles are verboten. It's kind of like stepping into 1902, but minus the corsets and parasols. The boat docked about 50 feet from our hotel, a fab waterfront jewel called the Iroquois. We took a walk along Main Street at dusk, marveled at the Victorian mansions and lake vistas, steeled ourselves from the onslaught of fudge shop after fudge shop, and despite all our best efforts, found ourselves relaxing.
The next day we got moving staggeringly early for us (8:30ish), but were greeted by a foggy damp morning. However, the rain held off long enough for us to rent bikes and ride the eight-mile road around the island, a wonderfully peaceful and scenic little activity. As the rain hit, and knowing that we'd probably be get a bit restless waiting for the weather to clear, we decided to head back to the mainland and drive the 60 miles north to Sault Ste. Marie, where the Dupuis clan lived from 1900 to 1920. But on our way out of St. Ignace, we saw our first Pastie shop, and nearly ended up in a ditch making the wild left-turn to get into the place. Pasties are a U.P. staple, meat and diced potatoes and carrots in a flaky crust, and Bill had been dreaming of them since the first day we planned the trip.
With yet another food requirement now checked off, we went to the Soo, and went 0-2 on Dupuis locales (the family house at 948 Maple is now an empty lot, and Great-Grandfather George's grocery store at 1022 East Portage is now a newer-looking building housing a drug-and-alcohol-dependency clinic for local Indians). So we ventured down the street to the Soo Locks, where ships sailing between Lake Huron and Lake Michigan pass through. And, with fabulous timing, the American Mariner arrived at the locks not long after we did, so we spent 20 minutes watching it drop 50 feet or so and then sail out the other side. Now THAT's vacation fun!
We had an early dinner back on Mackinac Island, and then settled in at a bar to watch the Redskins-Cowboys. Decided to head back to the room at halftime, only to discover that the nasty thunderstorm that had blown through took out the island's cable TV connection (the bar had a satellite dish). So we called it a night, and right before falling asleep I checked my BlackBerry (which unbelievably had connectivity even in the year 1902), which indicated that with no time left the Cowboys had won 13-0. Damn you, Lone Star State!
(don't forget the photos) Days 5-7
These next two days were going to be pedal-to-the-metal driving days, going alllllll the way to the northwestern tip of the U.P. to go in search of ancestral locations (the Quebecois lines of the family ventured to Michigan's "Copper Country" in the late 1800s). There was a lot (let me say that again, a LOT) of driving through forestland, but we did also get to spend time driving along the northern shore of Lake Michigan and the southern shore of Lake Superior, and with the rain having cleared out, we were treated to some spectacular views. We passed the hours by listening to XM Comedy 150 (I had brought the Roady along), allowing us to be indoctrinated into the cult of Todd Barry. We drove through Marquette looking for a lunch spot, but weren't finding anything that spoke to us until the heavens parted and shone a sunbeam down onto.... Culver's!!! The ButterBurger chain I had discovered in Des Moines during my Race to Wyoming! Sold! And it did not disappoint, those are some damn fine burgers (and they serve crinkle fries, to boot).
We got into Houghton County around 4:30, and made our way toward Hubbell and Lake Linden in search of the cemetery where my dad's Fillion great-grandparents are buried. But I failed in my pre-trip printing of maps, and so we fumbled around for a good while before managing to find the correct dirt road to drive down. These dang Canucks just aren't big on cemetery markers, so despite knowing that eight relatives are buried there, we found stones for only four of them. And no luck finding the house at 202 Osceola in Calumet where Great-Grandpa George lived in the 1890s. Bah! We went back to Hancock and our room at the Best Western (with WiFi, a stunning development). With Bill thinking that the premiere of My Name is Earl would be on at 8, he picked a pizza joint out of the phone book so we could eat in the room; but it was soon determined that he had been reading a Wisconsin newspaper (stupid timezones!). Oh well, we got the pizza (surprisingly a thin-crusted creation) and were well satiated by the time Earl came on.
Day 7 took us on much the same path as Day 6 (with a stop along the way for a "breakfast pastie"), back to St. Ignace, then we crossed the Mackinac Bridge back into the Lower Peninsula, and headed down the west coast, through Charlevoix and Petoskey [Beavis: "Petoskey! Petoskey!"] to our day's destination, the Grand Traverse Resort and Spa, a few miles outside of Traverse City. And while we had been prepared for our journey back to 1902 when arriving at Mackinac Island, we were not prepared to have the Grand Traverse transport us to 1977. It's hard to describe (the pictures should help), but every inch of the place screams 1970s. Brown palette, dark wood fixtures, glass elevators, etc. etc. Alas, I wish we had stayed in 1977 rather than taking the shuttle bus to the present day and the Turtle Creek Casino, where I promptly lost untold millions at video poker while surrounded by senior citizens. We went back to the hotel, got food at the bar, and watched that crippled-landing-gear Jet Blue flight successfully land at LAX.
Day 8 brought another rainy day, so we decided to avail ourselves of the indoor offerings of the resort--alas, the indoor pools were being renovated, but Bill hit for an hour on the indoor tennis courts, and I walked the treadmill. Then we had massages. After dinner at the golf course's club grille (which looked beautiful, but alas the food didn't live up to the atmosphere), we turned in, knowing that Day 8 would bring us back to 2005.
(don't forget the photos) Days 8-9
We drove into Traverse City for breakfast at The Clock, an outlet of a 24-hour joint that Bill frequented back in Madison Heights in his Michigan days. Then we set off for Detroit, via Grand Rapids and Lansing, but the route we took to GR ended up being a bit more, um, circuitous than hoped, thanks to what we were now recognizing as Michigan's complete inability to create and erect helpful signage. We saw Grand Rapids's tiny downtown, made a lightning car tour of the Michigan State campus in East Lansing, and stopped for lunch at a "Big John's Steak and Onion" (mmmmm.....).
Then we swung into Grosse Pointe, my home from 1973-1977 (more on GP follows below). Then we headed down Jefferson Avenue toward downtown Detroit and our hotel--there's some attempts at revitalization going on in this stretch (which is right along the Detroit River), but lots of sketchiness still remains. Included in that sketchiness was the hotel that I had booked online--sounded okay from the description, and I'm not as a-skeered of downtown Motor City as a lot of people, but as soon as we drove near the place, I vetoed it--it was just a little too far away from the real downtown, and the crowd of ne'er-do-wells standing out front didn't help. So we drove on, circled around some, and managed to find a Courtyard by Marriott with rooms available, right smack across from the Renaissance Center and the Windsor Tunnel. And believe it or not, this prime business hotel was the only one in our entire travels (including Mackinac Island and the far far far northwest UP) that didn't have WiFi; they did have Ethernet, but that meant we couldn't both surf at the same time. (Yes, we both travel with our own laptops. Sue us.)
We walked the few blocks to Greektown, where 100-year-old Greek restaurants fight for space with new Greek restaurants pretending to be 100-year-old Greek restaurants. Oh, and there's a casino there, where I actually had a decent evening of video poker.
The next day, we headed back to Grosse Pointe for breakfast, and so I could take more pictures (since my camera battery had died within seconds of arriving there the previous evening). I was not quite 7 when we moved there, and just short of 11 when we left to come back to DC, which I guess was the right age to form happy vivid memories, because every visit back to GP just enthralls me. It was a great place to be a kid--we had at least 10 kids living on our block, my elementary school was only two blocks away, the shopping area known as "the Village" was right there, too, and the roads were quiet and flat, which made bike riding a joy. And it was also back in the day when you didn't have to be leashed to your parents at all times. (And in the summer it doesn't get dark until around 10, which made "come in when the streetlights come on" a great offer, though I know we stayed out after dark a lot, playing "Ghost in the Graveyard.")
It's also an area full of lovely homes, with no shortage of Stately Wayne Manors. The best of the huge old-time mansions on Lake St. Clair--where my brother used to deliver the Detroit Free Press in the bitter morning cold--are gone now, replaced with in-fill housing, but a few still exist out on Lake Shore Drive. Even when I was little I knew those houses were *cool.* As I told Bill when we were driving around, Grosse Pointe spoiled me for life. It hasn't changed much, but we were surprised to find that the house next door to my old one is currently for sale for "only" $469,000. Guess that housing boom didn't quite make it into Detroit, even into a neighborhood as "tony" as GP. If only the Free Press and News weren't so crappy....
After having breakfast at the Mack Avenue Diner in Grosse Pointe Woods, we returned to the cemetery traipsing portion of our vacation, heading out to Mt. Olivet, the massive Catholic cemetery in Detroit. It's so massive that it's on two sides of one street, with a tunnel under the street connecting the two sides. Having contacted the cemetery folks a few years back, I know that my great-grandparents George and Flora Fillion Dupuis are buried there, in one plot along with with three of my great-aunts and one of my great-uncles. Alas, once again the French Canadians showed no interest in marking their graves, and so while I was able to find the section of the cemetery in which their plot is located, there's no evidence that they are there. But at least we got some fresh air.
We drove around some more, visiting Hamtramck then getting caught at a railroad crossing for about 15 minutes (which gave us a good laugh as we thought about how there are no train crossings in DC, because that sort of wasting of people's time would NOT BE TOLERATED). Then we went back downtown, and fled the country, taking the Windsor Tunnel over to Canada. We had stayed in Windsor on a previous trip (at a hotel on the Detroit River where the water actually lapped up underneath our balcony), so this visit wasn't for sightseeing, it was to head out to Belle River and St. Joachim to, you guessed it, traipse through more cemeteries. This area of Ontario, about 20 miles east of Windsor, is where my Dupuis great-great grandparents moved to after they left Maskinong←, Quebec in the 1860s. They are both buried there, although we could only find the gravestone of great-great grandmother L←ocadie Landry Dupuis, who died in 1900, in the cemetery at St. Joachim (two of her daughters are buried in that cemetery as well). Her husband Elie Dupuis is supposedly buried down the road apiece at the St. Simon and St. Jude cemetery in Belle River, but despite there being a boatload of Dupuis stones, we never found his. But it made for a good story when we crossed back into Michigan and the US Border Patrol guy asked us the purpose of our visit to Canada....
We stopped at the Lafayette Coney Island for a late lunch--I have ZERO memories of Coneys from my years in Detroit, but Bill knows them as a Detroit staple. They're basically hot dog joints, where the dogs come with chili and onions and mustard, and it was required that we eat at one during this visit. Blork. That then necessitated a nap. After finally awaking, we went back to the Greektown casino, where I gave back all the previous night's winnings, putting an exclamation point on what was probably my worst-ever loss total for a single trip. We took the People Mover (monorail) back to the hotel, getting a nice nighttime tour of downtown in the process, then we had dinner at the hotel's restaurant, Sweet Lorraine's.
(don't forget the photos) Day 10
We checked out of our hotel, with about 4 hours to kill before our flight back to DC. We had vague notions of wanting breakfast, but also wanting to drive around to check out a bunch of personal and city landmarks. We first tried to get a closer view of the Ambassador Bridge, but couldn't quite pull it off, but at least it then brought us close to the old Tiger Stadium, one of the great baseball stadiums in American history, no longer used but still standing at Michigan and Trumbull. We then started out of town on Grand River Avenue, first looking for the address where my great-uncle Leo Corrigan lived (he was so well known he was called the "Mayor of Grand River" with his funeral being held on the street). Alas, the building was gone.
We then went to find 3032 Pingree, where my grandfather Silas and his parents and siblings lived. This is in a part of town that is, shall we say, urbanized, and I'm not altogether sure when the last white people made an appearance on Pingree, so we got a lot of stares as we drove through the streets. And, in keeping with the tradition of this trip, the house was no longer there, just an empty lot with houses on either side. We kept going out Grand River to find a spot from Bill's pugilistic history (you'll have to wait for the book to come out for more on that), then decided to kill the last part of our free time by going to the Henry Ford, another touchstone of our youths, because when you live in Detroit and you have out-of-town guests, you take 'em to Greenfield Village and the Henry Ford Museum. We managed to find a Big Boy in Dearborn and had breakfast there, crossing another Detroit culinary landmark off our list, then somehow got ourselves to the Henry Ford despite the utter lack of signage. Bill got to spend some time with Kennedy's limousine, and we got to see the actual Rosa Parks bus, and the Wienermobile, and lots and lots of old cars, getting a good giggle out of the display devoted to the 1986 Ford Taurus, a Road and Driver Car of the Year and apparently a seminal moment in auto design (let's say it together, AE-RO-DY-NAM-IC).
Time was starting to run short, but we had a final task to complete, and that was giving Bill one last White Castle fix before leaving town. We drove a long way, but we found him one, and now that he smelled good and oniony, we headed off to drop off the rental car (barely managing to find the place because of the utter lack of signage). At the airport, I completed my last food item, getting a slice of Little Caesar's pizza in the food court. (If only Dino's still existed....)
And that was that.
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Travel | Sep 30, 2005 12:02 PM | Rant About This Rant (3) | Link to This Rant |
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September 29, 2005
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Hope everyone has lots of grandma's quilts (or a wood-burning fireplace) handy!
Natural Gas Prices Set Record, Pointing to Costly Winter (NYT)Natural gas prices set a new record today, presaging higher heating bills for a majority of Americans this winter as well as soaring costs for industrial manufacturers of such products as plastics and chemicals.
Since the beginning of the summer, the price of natural gas has doubled. But unlike crude oil or gasoline, whose recent gains have been widely felt by most Americans, the surge in natural gas prices, the most popular form of energy for home heating, has so far gone largely unnoticed.
That is about to change as colder weather sets in. A hot summer, which pushed up natural gas consumption by electricity companies and depleted winter stocks, is expected to give way to a cold winter, which will push up residential consumption. Meanwhile, the Gulf Coast, the nation's largest energy hub, has suffered devastating punches from two severe hurricanes.
All these factor have now come together to create a natural gas crisis.
"It's still under most people's radar screen right now," said Carl Neill, an analyst at Risk Management Inc., a natural gas consultant and brokerage firm Chicago. "The public has absolutely no idea how high prices are going to be this year. It's going to be mind-boggling. Price are going to be 50 to 100 percent higher for residential consumers than in previous year."
[...] The back-to-back hurricanes highlighted how precarious America's energy supplies were, as they stretched the country's refining system and crippled gasoline distribution for days. About 15 percent of the country's oil refining capacity is expected to be out of service for weeks.
If you want a really good idea of exactly what's happening in the Gulf of Mexico (and not the "we dodged a bullet" crap that flooded the airwaves right after Rita), go to The Oil Drum, which includes links to stories such as these:
Rita Causes Record Damage to Oil Rigs (Financial Times) Hurricane Rita has caused more damage to oil rigs than any other storm in history and will force companies to delay drilling for oil in the US and as far away as the Middle East, initial damage assessments show.
[...] Ken Sill of Credit Suisse First Boston said: Early reports indicate numerous rigs are missing, destroyed or have suffered serious damage and several companies have yet to report. Rita may set an all-time record.
The US Coast Guard said nine semisubmersible rigs had broken free from their moorings and were adrift.
This damage could not have come at a worse time for oil companies and consumers. US crude futures on Monday fell 37 cents to $65.45 a barrel in midday trading in New York as refineries that were evacuated before the onset of Rita returned to operation.
[...] Initial reports from companies are ominous. Global Santa Fe reported it could not find two of its rigs. Rowan Companies reported four rigs damaged, with two having moved, one losing its legs and the fourth presumed sunk. Noble has four rigs adrift, with two run aground one into a ChevronTexaco platform.
Katrina Pipeline Damage More than First Thought WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Hurricane Katrina did more damage to underwater oil and natural gas pipelines in the Gulf of Mexico than previously thought, according to the U.S. agency that oversees offshore energy production.
The head of the Interior Department's Minerals Management Service, Johnnie Burton, said two weeks ago that Katrina did not do as much damage to offshore pipelines as Hurricane Ivan did a year earlier.
However, Burton's estimate turned out to be too optimistic, and the damage is much worse.
In the meantime, gas prices keep going up. And how do people pay for gas?
More US Credit Cards Overdue WASHINGTON (AP) -- Surging energy prices, low personal savings and the higher cost of borrowing have combined to produce a record level of overdue credit card bills in the United States.
The American Bankers Association reported Wednesday that the percentage of credit card accounts 30 or more days past due climbed to a record high of 4.81 percent in the April-to-June period. It could grow in the months ahead, experts said.
[...] "The rise in gas prices is really stretching budgets to the breaking point for some people," Chessen said. "Gas prices are taking huge chunks out of wallets, leaving some individuals with little left to meet their financial obligations."
[...] When people have less money available money to pay for energy costs or emergencies such as a big car repair, many resort to credit. That option is getting more expensive, too.
And note that those numbers are pre-KatRita.
UPDATE: And Nightline did Avian Flu tonight. There's Doom everywhere! (But it must be mentioned that Ted, who's an even bigger Prophet of Doom than I, said that the episode was an attempt to raise awareness without raising panic, to "fall somewhere between 'We're all going to die' and 'So, how 'bout them Yankees?' " You go, Ted!)
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Doom | Sep 29, 2005 9:09 PM | Rant About This Rant (0) | Link to This Rant |
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I'm so sad to see Mr. Bowtie moving on, I hope history continues to give him the credit he deserves for this city's financial turnaround. And he got us baseball, too.
Williams Will Not Run for Third Term D.C. Mayor Anthony A. Williams announced today that he will not seek reelection next year, telling supporters he feels "it's time for a change" and for "new challenges."
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DC | Sep 29, 2005 5:48 PM | Rant About This Rant (0) | Link to This Rant |
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September 28, 2005
September 26, 2005
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Oh God, now I'll really never leave the house: our cable company has added TNT-HD. So now I get perpetual Law & Order reruns in high-definition (when available).
... But I'm not going to tolerate Criminal Intent much longer if I keep having to look at Olivia d'Abo's Botox-frozen face.
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Culture | Sep 26, 2005 8:56 PM | Rant About This Rant (13) | Link to This Rant |
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September 25, 2005
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Back in the saddle here--as you might have guessed, The Man and I were on vacation, spending nine days criss-crossing Michigan, from Detroit to Mackinac Island to Houghton County in the far west Upper Peninsula to Traverse City back to Detroit. Pictures and travelogue will come soon, because I know folks just can't wait to see photos of our old houses and hear about all the White Castles we ate at.
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Travel | Sep 25, 2005 10:06 PM | Rant About This Rant (3) | Link to This Rant |
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September 22, 2005
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I point you back to this entry of mine after Katrina, and I ask you to ponder--if Rita now goes much closer to the Texas/Louisiana border, and Houston doesn't get the full brunt, how many of those people who've spent 19 hours in a car to get to Austin (normally a three-hour trip) will bother to evacuate next time? And what about the people in southern Louisiana who for three days have watched all the focus be on Houston, who might suddenly be finding out that they're going to be in much deeper doo-doo than has been forecast? Are they going to be able to get out? And will they be blamed for not evacuating when the storm looked like it was going to hit 200 miles to their west?
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Doom | Sep 22, 2005 3:06 PM | Rant About This Rant (8) | Link to This Rant |
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September 20, 2005
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Not in a position to blog on Rita right now, except to say that I think New Orleans is not going to get resubmerged. But Galveston might want to be a bit concerned.
And did you know how many oil and gas installations there are on the Gulf coast?
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Doom | Sep 20, 2005 8:58 PM | Rant About This Rant (0) | Link to This Rant |
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September 15, 2005
September 14, 2005
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I have to post this, because it was so Doom-y that even I cracked up as it aired.
Unprepared for DisasterExperts Say United States May Not Be Ready for Natural or Man-Made Calamities Sept. 13, 2005 - In a rare move by his administration, President Bush accepted full responsibility today for the badly flawed response to Hurricane Katrina. Despite the billions of dollars the federal government has spent since 9/11, many leading disaster readiness experts say the country may not be prepared for most major disasters.
Another terror attack on a major city, either biological or nuclear in nature, is drawing the most attention.
Although there have been police drills, a leading Republican congressman says there is no effective preparedness plan for a dirty bomb.
"I think if there was a dirty bomb attack in any of our major cities, we would be very unprepared," admits Rep. Chris Shays, R-Conn., who heads a key House subcommittee overseeing the government's preparedness against terrorism threats.
As for smallpox, the government says it now has enough vaccine for everyone in the country. However, the New York Academy of Medicine finds the government's actual preparedness plans to be deeply flawed.
"The plans themselves are flawed because there's a real disconnect between what people would actually do and the risk that planners are trying to protect them from," asserts Roz Lasker, head of the public health division at the academy.
There appears to be even less preparation for natural disasters, such as earthquakes. California is considered prepared, but not the Midwest and cities along the little-known New Madrid fault that stretches from Illinois to Tennessee.
"We're talking about hundreds, thousands, maybe tens of thousands of casualties, an event in the Katrina class," says Kyle Olson, the vice president of Community Research Asociates, Inc., a private homeland security consulting firm.
"Whether any state or local government is ready to respond to that, an event that comes without the warning we had with Katrina, I think that's the kind of thing that can keep you up at night," Olson says.
In addition, many officials believe the federal government has been slow to recognize a new and potentially greater threat, a rare and deadly strain of flu. Currently found in Asia, it is threatening to become a global epidemic and hit the United States.
"We could be dealing with a situation where 1,500 people a day could be dying of influenza, with a large number of those people being children," says Dr. Irwin Redlener, director of the National Center for Disease Preparedness.
There is no vaccine for the avian bird flu. The United States has been well behind most industrialized countries in obtaining supplies of the one medicine that works against the rare flu. No deliveries of the medicine are expected until after this winter's flu season.
According to Redlener, "We are not even close to being prepared for this country."
By the time it got to New Madrid and then the Avian Flu, I burst out laughing. It was like he was speaking to me!
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Doom | Sep 14, 2005 10:43 PM | Rant About This Rant (1) | Link to This Rant |
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Okay, I'm sorry, this is just too damn funny.
U.S. President George W. Bush writes a note to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice during a Security Council meeting at the 2005 World Summit and 60th General Assembly of the United Nations in New York September 14, 2005. World leaders are exploring ways to revitalize the United Nations at a summit on Wednesday but their blueprint falls short of Secretary-General Kofi Annan's vision of freedom from want, persecution and war. REUTERS/Rick Wilking
Can't read that note that Dear Leader is writing?
Look close.
Closer.
Closer.
Okay, I'll decipher it for you.
"I think I may need a bathroom break? Is this possible?"
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News | Sep 14, 2005 6:57 PM | Rant About This Rant (1) | Link to This Rant |
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September 13, 2005
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Hey everyone, September is National Preparedness Month! How handy!
Despite her impatience with my continuing Doom, Suzanne passes along this NY Times link, "Planning the Impossible: New York's Evacuation." Which then leads me to the Post version, "Terrorism Could Hurl D.C. Area Into Turmoil - Despite Efforts Since 9/11, Response Plans Incomplete".
There's a school of thought out there that the government (and the media) has completed what the terrorists started, that is, convincing the population of the United States that anyone and everyone could be caught in a terror attack at any time, causing unnecessary fear and stress in huge segments of the population that are about as likely to be struck by terror as they are by lightning. I agree with this wholeheartedly--the classic post-9/11 Onion piece "Security Beefed Up at Cedar Rapids Public Library" illustrates the absurdity to perfection.
That being said, most of you know that I also believe there are certain areas of the country and certain landmarks that are more likely than others to be targets. For instance, big gleaming marble buildings that symbolize the United States (because apparently, I'm told, terrorists hate our freedom). As the crow flies, our house is a half-mile downwind of the US Capitol. When we bought it 12 years ago, I never concerned myself with What Could Happen--my reasoning was always that the Capitol would be target #1 for a nuclear missile, so I'd be vaporized before knowing what hit me. And, as a friend once wisely told me, it would be better to be gone in an instant than to be one of those left behind who have to bury the bodies. So I was cool with it all.
But 3 years and 363 days ago, my point of view changed just a teensy bit. I have a hard time getting people to understand the permanent damage to my psyche that came from spending a glorious September day in my living room looking up at the sky watching for inbound hijacked passenger jets, and wondering whether the Air Force would choose to save the Capitol by shooting down a plane over my house. (The passengers of Flight 93 saved my beloved Capitol building and quite possibly my neighborhood that day, something I don't ever forget.) Then there was the anthrax scares of 2001, when we stopped getting mail for a few days because our deliveries are so intertwined with the Capitol's. Then we started hearing about suitcase nukes, chemical and biological attacks, etc., each time seemingly illustrated with "here's what would happen if it were exploded on the steps of the Capitol." In all of these scenarios, it's quite clear that our street is far enough away that we probably wouldn't even suffer a shattered window, but with a toxic cloud hovering, it would behoove us to get out. Immediately. With the knowledge that we might not get to come back for a long, long time.
That would kind of mark a change in our lives. (And in the appraisal value of our house, but that's for another time.)
And that's why I have a certain amount of impatience with the people who have a certain amount of impatience with me over this subject, that I don't just laugh it off and say, "oh well, gosh darn, nothing I can do about it." Of course there's nothing I can do to prevent the bad guys from pulling this off, but I can sure as hell make sure that if I do have to leave my entire existence behind at a moment's notice, that I'm ready.
And boy oh boy, am I now ready, even down to the level of having packed and ready two bags that can be carried if just one of us is home and has to evacuate the 10 miles to my parents' house on foot (since DC descends into gridlock when there's a thunderstorm, one can only imagine the chaos on the roads during an attack, and if you think I'm getting on the subway at a time like this...). The bags contain water, PowerBars, cash, a FM/AM/TV radio with extra batteries, a flashlight, hats, underwear, socks, toiletries, medications, lists of accounts, even a few sure-to-be-useless dust masks. Also, there are discs that hold all of my electronic documents, including scans of the irreplaceable--my photo albums, journals, writing notebooks, and genealogy documents. If getting out by car is an option, then there are additional bags to grab as well, that have more clothes, more food, more water, paper plates, plastic utensils, and even cat food. (Note that all of this is also everything needed to Shelter in Place, in case an attack shuts down the city but our neighborhood is spared.)
Honestly, this is really no different than what people should put together at the beginning of the hurricane season if they live along the coasts, or what folks who live in earthquake zones should have ready, or what you might want to have prepared in case there's a fire or a flood or a tornado.
And yes, getting all of this stuff prepped is really just my way of attempting to control what is an uncontrollable situation, I'm well aware of that. But I'm guessing a few folks along the Gulf coast are wishing they had had my level of angst....
Because, after all, I am the Prophet of Doom.
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Doom | Sep 13, 2005 12:13 PM | Rant About This Rant (9) | Link to This Rant |
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September 12, 2005
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Today I bring you post-Katrina energy supply (and food supply) Doom:
Update on Hurricane Katrina's Damage to the Gulf Oil Patch[...] Mississippi has essentially lost its barrier islands. In addition the Chandelier Islands of Louisiana are completely gone. All that remains of the Chandelier Islands is a few shoals. In most locations it is now deep water. These may be observed on NOAA photos at their website. In addition much of the State of Louisiana, East, and South of New Orleans has sunk. This may also be observed at the NOAA site. The dikes along the Mississippi river remain intact but most of the land adjacent almost into the city of New Orleans is gone. This extends on a line almost to Morgan City. There is some question if this is an extended "storm surge" (Note no such thing has been observed before) or if the area is permanently gone. The area involved is about 2000 square miles. The entire area of the state south of Baton Rouge is now in danger of sinking into the sea forever. This includes some areas into the State of Mississippi and the ENTIRE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS.
[...] Some 50% of the US Natural Gas supply is shut down due to pipeline damage and rig damage. This is the thing I was talking about in a previous posting to the PESN site when I referred to a Global Famine being a distinct possibility. It now is approaching certainty. Let us hope for the best.
[...] More serious is the Natural Gas supply. Americans can adapt on Gasoline. Not so for Natural Gas. Natural Gas is a commodity used to directly power a lot of industry and is used extensively for Peak Loading of the Electrical Power Grid. About ᄑ of it is used in the manufacture of chemicals especially for making NITRATE FERTILIZER. The USA is a massive exporter of nitrate fertilizer to the rest of the world. We also use massive quantities of it. The exact tonnage of this is difficult to estimate but this loss of supply is enough to risk the loss of a very significant part of the world fertilizer supply. This is going to affect the supply of food in the world for about 2 years. This will not be a minor loss. This is why I referred to a "World Wide Famine" in the earlier PESN posting. It is now a definite possibility.
If the USA diverts Natural Gas to preserve the fertilizer supply, the US Power Grid will lose about 30% of its gross supply of electricity and most of its peak loading capacity. This threatens massive loss of jobs and productivity. Many industries cannot operate without the natural gas. If it does not divert this millions may starve. It is a horrible choice.
In the meantime, we're told that the recovery of bodies in New Orleans is well underway, but perhaps not with the haste you'd hope for, but with plenty of bureaucratic buck-passing. Bastards. (If the source of this heinous story troubles you, check back soon, I'm waiting for CNN to post the transcript of Anderson Cooper discussing seeing the same bodies over and over for the past two weeks, and how if the government is so concerned about the dignity of the dead that it doesn't want their recovery photographed, perhaps they ought to show the dead that dignity by actually picking their bodies up out of the muck.)
UPDATE: Here's what Anderson said:
And some search-and-rescue people from a local nearby parish said, don't photograph that person. And we basically waited. And they left. And we did from a distance and a respectful distance, not showing any details, nothing that any family member who was at home, you know, because, God forbid, we don't want some family member seeing their loved one on television like this. But, I will say, this -- as Dan said, this is not some ghoulish pursuit that is, you know, we just want to get pictures of dead people. This is reality. These people have not had dignity for two weeks now. And so, it's a little bit artificial for people to be saying that they are trying to restore the dignity to these people by not allowing their pictures to be taken, because, frankly, if restoring their dignity was the primary, paramount concern, you might make the argument that they would have been picked up and not had their bodies tied to stop signs and lampposts for the last two weeks, while rescuers repeatedly went by them, instead of picking up their bodies, Aaron.
UPDATE II: Gov. Blanco apparently agrees.
Louisiana Gov. Kathleen Blanco lashed out at FEMA on Tuesday for what she said was a "lack of urgency and lack of respect" involving the recovery of bodies of Hurricane Katrina victims. Blanco said she ordered the state to sign a contract with Kenyon International Monday, after Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff failed to live up to a promise to sign a contract with the organization.
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Doom | Sep 12, 2005 10:21 PM | Rant About This Rant (0) | Link to This Rant |
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September 11, 2005
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Andre Agassi compares his two main nemeses:
"You play a bad match against Pete, you lose, 6-4, 7-5," he said. "You play a good match against Pete, you lose, 6-4, 7-5. You play a good match against Federer, you lose, 6-4, 7-5. You play a bad match against Federer, you lose, 1 and 1."
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Sports | Sep 11, 2005 10:24 AM | Rant About This Rant (1) | Link to This Rant |
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September 9, 2005
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Fewer Bodies Than Expected Found in Sweeps NEW ORLEANS - Authorities said Friday that their first systematic sweep of the city found far fewer bodies than expected, suggesting that Hurricane Katrina's death toll may not be the catastrophic 10,000 feared.
"I think there's some encouragement in what we've found in the initial sweeps that some of the catastrophic deaths that some people predicted may not have occurred," said Terry Ebbert, New Orleans' homeland security chief.
Ebbert declined to give a new estimate of the dead.
This is great news. But will we think we "dodged a bullet" if the death toll is "only" 1,000?
I must admit to wondering about the word getting out yesterday that FEMA had ordered 25,000 body bags--were they intentionally setting a high bar so that a much lower number would seem a relief? It reminds me of how we originally thought 10,000 people might have died on 9/11, and so for a little while the "merely" 3,000 dead seemed embraceably low, until everyone stepped back for a moment to think about the horror of 3,000 people dying in one strike.
A hurricane in the U.S. hasn't killed more than 250 people since 1969 (Camille, with 256 dead). The list of the 50 deadliest hurricanes to strike the US shows Camille, Audrey (1957, 390 deaths), and Diane (1955, 184 deaths) as the only storms after 1938 to make the Top 20. (The 20th deadliest hurricane, which hit Texas in 1886, killed 150 people.) Katrina's current death toll of 301 already puts it at 11th on this list. If the death toll reaches 1,000 (and remember, it isn't just New Orleans, but all along the coast), Katrina would be the 5th deadliest hurricane on record.
(As for the deadliest natural disasters in U.S. history, you'd think that would be an easy list to find, but it's not, and numbers from Way Back When are hard to come by as well--for instance, the 1906 San Francisco earthquake killed 470 people. Or 3,000.)
And of course the final total may only count bodies found, not ones that disappear by other means.
UPDATE: Once again, Wolcott and I are pondering the same morsel (though he heads off in a slightly more volatile direction than meek little me).
UPDATE II: Hmmm. They've done the sweeps, but are now starting the sweeps?
"There's some encouragement in the initial sweeps ... The numbers (of dead) so far are relatively minor as compared with the dire predictions of 10,000," said Col. Terry Ebbert, director of Homeland Security for New Orleans.
"The search for living individuals across the city has been conducted," Ebbert said. "What we are starting today ... is a recovery operation, a recovery operation to search by street, by grid, for the remains of any individuals who have passed away."
Not to be a Gloomy Gus (or a Doomy Dupree), but I'm guessing the initial sweeps didn't include the Ninth Ward, where the water was 20 feet high, and is still quite a ways up there.
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Doom | Sep 9, 2005 3:17 PM | Rant About This Rant (2) | Link to This Rant |
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September 7, 2005
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I'm going to go a little off the reservation here, and ponder the pre-Katrina evacuations (or lack thereof). The Storm2k message boards were chock full of people on Friday night and Saturday who were calling for Louisiana to announce a mandatory evacuation of New Orleans. And we know that Max Mayfield of the National Hurricane Center was beating quite strongly on the Louisiana government to issue the mandatory evacuation (hence the wording of the infamous nothing-will-be-left-standing statement on Sunday morning). The CW is that New Orleans needs a minimum of 50 hours to evacuate; by the time the mandatory evacuation was announced (Sunday morning at 10 am, after a voluntary evacuation had been announced the day before), the storm was only about 20 hours away.
But I submit to you that mandatory evacuations are a very dicey prospect. There are a lot of people now (on both sides of the aisle) screaming about how the city didn't do this, didn't do that, etc. But hurricanes don't always do what's expected, and if big cities in CYA mode now start demanding mandatory evacuations every time a storm is threatening, it's not going to take long before there are a lot of unhappy citizens and businesses complaining about how they had to leave town and spend money for shelter when their city ended up not being hit. Imagine if Tampa had been given a mandatory evacuation before Charley (the storm which seemed to be heading right for TB and then hung a right and smacked Punta Gorda instead). The outcry, especially from some folks like Neal Boortz, would have been astronomical.
Washington-area citizens should remember back to Isabel in 2003, which loomed in the Atlantic as a massive Category 5 hurricane with a perfectly annular presentation, a mark of incredible strength for a tropical system. Even here, 150 miles inland, we were under hurricane warnings. And it dropped to a Category 2 before landfall, still wreaking havoc but not ending up anywhere near the catastrophe that had been trumpeted for a landfalling Category 5 in the Chesapeake Bay. Heck, DC has been burned how many times by "snow days" where a predicted blizzard ends up in nothing more than flurries, and the government and private businesses lose millions of dollars by being forced to close. And residents don't even have to evacuate. But still the recriminations fly fast and furious.
New Orleans is (was?) a special case, of course, given "the bowl" and also the difficulties in getting it evacuated. And when Katrina ramped up to a Cat 5 on Sunday morning, with that perfect donut-shaped eye, anyone in the way should have had enough sense to get out. But plenty of people--myself included--have enough of a memory to know that hurricanes shift, hurricanes weaken (like Ivan did last year before hitting Alabama), etc. etc. etc. Certainly the city should have tried much harder to get buses out into the poor areas (though it did more of that than I think people are aware) and take people to the Superdome (for five fun-filled days of dehydration and hunger)--but with Betsy in 1965 being the last direct hit, and with the city having been through so many false alarms (Ivan and Dennis in the last 12 months alone), and with hurricanes being so fickle, can we honestly (outside of the Blame Game) berate the government and the citizens for not ramping up into Full Panic Mode? We know how many people made the decision to stay, would we have wanted the New Orleans police to carry those people out of their homes and onto buses?
On the other hand, Past Performance is No Indication of Future Results, and weather doomsayers have been saying for years that the past 30 years were a lull in tropical development rather than a new reality, and the tropical computer models were more in agreement on a just-east-of-NoLa-landfall than any models I've seen in 10 years of dedicated storm watching, but it's tough to get the average Joe to believe in theories and doomsaying as opposed to what they've experienced.
I'd also note that The Prophet of Doom is well aware--as are most people--that worst case scenarios rarely come to pass.
Large percentages of folks along the Mississippi coast also didn't run screaming for the hills. Personally, I would have been about 200 miles inland by Saturday evening, but I'm not sure how much I can truly begrudge the people living in houses that survived Camille who decided to ride it out. Camille was the grandmommy of storms, the one by which all Gulf of Mexico storms are measured. But even though Katrina ended up being weaker than Camille at landfall, she was a much larger-diameter storm, and her storm surge was most likely higher by as much as 10 feet, dooming a far greater portion of the Gulf Coast population. Again, this was predicted by the NHC, but it is true that oftentimes what the weatherman predicts and what comes to pass are very different situations, indeed.
That being said, I hope that Mississippi and all other jurisdictions who try to assuage their guilt at supporting SINFUL activities will stop with this nonsense of insisting that casinos must be on barges, to pretend that they're "riverboat casinos" from a bygone era. I'm guessing you won't find any of the major gaming corporations returning to Biloxi until they can rebuild on firm ground.
I'll be interested to see the reaction when the next major hurricane presents a landfall threat to the U.S., to see if in this post-Katrina world people flee in a panic, or if the "it can't happen again anytime soon" mentality will creep back in.
And, dear Heavens, if New Orleans does get rebuilt in the same spot, rather than focusing solely on levees, can we this time raise the whole city up by nine or 10 feet?
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Doom | Sep 7, 2005 1:53 PM | Rant About This Rant (9) | Link to This Rant |
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September 6, 2005
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If I see the phrase "Blame Game" one more time....
UPDATE: Jack Cafferty on CNN reads my mind:
Why are we talking about the "blame game" - there are thousands of people dead because government officials failed to do what they're supposed to be doing. That's criminal behavior. I mean, that's no game. There are people dead in the city of New Orelans and up and down the gulf coast because people charged with seeing to their welfare failed to do that. I don't understand this reluctance to say, Mr. Brown, you failed in your assignment. You're out of here. Go away. Go back to Colorado and go back to working for the Arabian Horse Assocaition that we got you from.
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Doom | Sep 6, 2005 11:27 AM | Rant About This Rant (1) | Link to This Rant |
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September 5, 2005
September 2, 2005
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Hey, everybody, check it out, I got my office remodeled!

And, guess what, it's still not done. The under-cabinet lights got installed, but suddenly stopped working right when the guy was leaving. And he didn't put in the moulding to hide the lights, either. So, 90 days and counting, but I'm completing my move back in tonight.
As for the real news of the day, I'll discuss it later. When I'm just a little less apopleptic.
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Office Remodel 2005 | Sep 2, 2005 6:25 PM | Rant About This Rant (1) | Link to This Rant |
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September 1, 2005
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The Tinkerbell Strategy, on vacation from Iraq and now stateside for your listening pleasure:
Patrick Rhode, FEMA's deputy director, insisted that "this has been probably one of the most efficient and effective responses in the country's history." (NYT, 9/2/05)
But maybe it's just that liberal media, ignoring the good news and only reporting the bad news, like gangs shooting at innocent civilians, people dying while waiting to be evacuated, and rats nibbling on dead bodies in the streets.
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Doom | Sep 1, 2005 10:05 PM | Rant About This Rant (2) | Link to This Rant |
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I don't even know where to start today.
So first, here's a quick link, to The Interdictor, a New Orleans blogger documenting the atrocities.
WLOX (Gulfport/Biloxi/Pascagoula) has some gasp-inducing flyover video of the devastation from Waveland to Biloxi.
I haven't started watching the live feed from WWL (New Orleans) yet today, but I can only imagine. People shooting at the rescue helicopters?!?!? Their blog includes some additional dandies:
11:44 A.M. - St. Bernard Parish official Walter Leger - thousands still trapped in St. Bernard. Thousands more are staying on the levee and are being taken by ferry to Algiers.
11:41 A.M. - St. Tammany Parish President Kevin Davis: There is no gasoline in St. Tammany Parish. If you enter, you will be stranded if you run out of fuel. Do not attempt to cross St. Tammany to reach any areas on the south shore. ALL bridges are closed. Most have severe structural damage or are closed indefinitely for safety reasons.
11:23 A.M. - (AP) Outside the New Orleans Convention Center, survivors are growing more frustrated with the lack of help after Hurricane Katrina. [...] Several bodies lie scattered around. Edwards pointed to an elderly lady dead in a wheelchair and said, "I don't treat my dog like that." He says he buried his dog.
10:52 A.M. - Slidell Mayor Ben Morris said 15,000 people are now without a home in his city.
10:05 A.M. - WWL-TV's Mike Hoss: The camera cannot truly capture what transpired in New Orleans. "You have no idea how bad it is," he said.
7:37 A.M. - (AP) The evacuation of the Superdome was suspended Thursday after shots were fired at a military helicopter, an ambulance official overseeing the operation said. No immediate injuries were reported.
7:00 A.M. - "For the next two or three months, in this area, there will not be any commerce, at all. No electricity, no restaurants. This is the real deal. It's not living conditions." -- New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin.
And where is the federal help? Oh, people have to be patient, the president says. Heaven forbid the Feds would have put anything in place nearby before the storm hit. After all, it's not like anyone was warning them that this might happen. And, as Atrios says, "It makes me furious that 4 years after 9/11 it's apparently the case that the government literally has no contigency plans for dealing with disasters of this scale. What the hell have they been doing?"
Next, two WaPo pieces on the big picture of doom.
Extraordinary Problems, Difficult Solutions First they have to pump the flooded city dry, and that will take a minimum of 30 days. Then they will have to flush the drinking water system, making sure they don't recycle the contaminants. Figure another month for that.
The electricians will have to watch out for snakes in the water, wild animals and feral dogs. It will be a good idea to wear hip boots and take care of cuts and scrapes before the toxic slush turns them into festering sores. The power grid might be up in a few weeks, but many months will elapse before everybody's lights come back on. By that time, a lot of people won't care because they will have taken the insurance money and moved away -- forever. Home rebuilding, as opposed to repairs, won't start for a year and will last for years after that.
Even then, there may be nothing normal about New Orleans, because the floodwater, spiked with tons of contaminants ranging from heavy metals and hydrocarbons to industrial waste, human feces and the decayed remains of humans and animals, will linger nearby in the Gulf of Mexico for a decade.
Critical US Supply Line is Disrupted New Orleans is underwater, and its future is uncertain -- as is that of the $49 billion in goods, 60 percent of U.S. grain exports, and 26 percent of the nation's natural gas supply and crude oil that flow through nearby ports each year.
[...] Signs emerged yesterday of the havoc the storm wreaked on the companies and transportation lines that supply the nation, with dozens of firms disclosing the scope of damages at facilities near the Gulf of Mexico or simply stating they could not yet say what that scope might be.
Union Carbide Corp. officials could not even get to their chemicals plant in Hahnville, La., the firm said yesterday, and it will probably take weeks to resume operations there. Chiquita Brands International Inc. reported severe damage at the Gulfport, Miss., facility where it stores one-fourth of the bananas it imports from Central America.
Yellow Roadway Corp., one of the nation's largest trucking companies, has 20 trucking terminals in the area affected by the storm, some of which may have been destroyed, chief executive William D. Zollars said yesterday. With major bridges near New Orleans damaged, the company is routing trucks hours out of their way.
Rail carriers Norfolk Southern Corp., Union Pacific Corp. and Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. have all stopped freight traffic into the afflicted area. And shipping experts said it is hard to predict how long it will take the Port of New Orleans and other nearby ports to reopen, given that they may need to dredge new channels and make major repairs. Efforts to reach officials of the Port of New Orleans were unsuccessful yesterday.
[...] The damage might even be felt at the breakfast table. New Orleans warehouses hold about a quarter of the nation's raw coffee, 211 million pounds. Concerns that importers will have difficulty rerouting coffee shipments and that large amounts of inventory have been lost pushed the price of coffee for December delivery up to $1.01 a pound yesterday on the New York Board of Trade, an increase of more than 3 cents, after gains Monday and Tuesday.
(I just hit the highlights on these stories--make sure to go read them in their entirety.) You can also read WaPo pieces "Gas Prices Soar" (near $6/gallon in Atlanta) and "Exodus from New Orleans Continues Amid Chaos" for late-morning updates.
And I haven't even looked at any of the national cable networks yet, either.
I told Bill last night that I think the ultimate solution will be to save the French Quarter, keep it as a Salute to The Big Easy tourist trap, and bulldoze all the rest of the place without bothering to rebuild.
This was after I told him that this has all been a good reminder for us to not plan on getting any government help anytime soon after the next terrorist attack hits DC. The Go Bags have been packed since 2001 (water, radio, extra batteries, PowerBars, peanut butter, cat food, clothes, etc), but I guess I'd better check on them again.
Of course, today is also the first appearance in 2005 of September 11th Weather. Crystal clear skies, low humidity, slight breeze. Just to add to the unease.
UPDATE: I've just ventured onto the liberal blogs for the first time since Katrina hit, and the fury at the incompetence of the government response is something to behold. See Atrios, Josh Marshall, Kos, AMERICAblog, Kevin Drum, and Steve Gilliard for the best of it, especially the stories of the budget cuts in New Orleans levee construction over the past few years, with the money being moved to Homeland Security and Iraq.
I am just ill.
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Doom | Sep 1, 2005 11:32 AM | Rant About This Rant (1) | Link to This Rant |
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